单边与多边之间:特朗普政府退约的国际制度逻辑

特朗普政府的退约行为引发了国际社会对于国际制度体系运转的广泛关注。退约本质上是为了协调国际制度的刚性承诺与国家的灵活性需求之间的紧张关系。长期以来,国际制度理论对退约的研究相对忽视和不足,尽管“制度困境论”“制度互动论”“制度收缩论”和“制度现实主义论”等学说提供了部分解释,但仍需要明确退约在现有国际制度研究谱系中的位置。究其原因,制度主义在研究设计中用“背叛”研究把退约排除在研究议程之外,而制度扩散长期掩盖了制度退出的影响。本质上,制度主义聚焦制度的形成和维持,是一种关注稳定大于变动的理论。为此,文章从制度要素出发,提出退约具有国际制度自身的逻辑和特征,即从制度成员身份、条约义务偏好和后果不确定性程度这三个方面对退约进行动态把握。特朗普政府的退约行为是历史延续性和当前的特殊性相结合的产物,不会给当前的国际制度体系和国际合作进程产生决定性影响。对于美国退约后的国际制度行为,中国应高度重视,从政治、法律和经济等多维度加以全面审视,而非简单地从道德层面进行谴责。同时,中国在必要时需要重新审视退约作为外交战略的可选工具,以切实维护自身的国家利益。

Between Bilateralism and Multilateralism:The Logic of the Trump Administration’s Exit from International Institutions

The Trump Administration’s exit from international institutions has attracted widespread attention to the question of the sustainability of international institutions.The article builds on this theory by starting with the core elements of institutionalism,proposing an institutional logic of withdrawal that is based on dynamic interactions between three factors:membership identity;preferences vis-à-vis treaty obligations;and the level of uncertainty of the consequences of withdrawal.The behavior of the Trump Administration with respect to withdrawal from institutions is a function of both historical continuity as well as the unique circumstances of the current era.Trump’s withdrawal from institutional arrangements will not have decisive impact on the international system at large or on the trajectory of international cooperation.China should pay close attention to the behavior of the international institutions from which the United States withdraws,and should consider comprehensively the political,legal,and economic ramifications.It should avoid simplistic condemnations of American behavior based on moral grounds and should consider institutional withdrawal as a possible diplomatic strategy that China might deploy as needed in safeguarding its own national interests.