能力分配、制度共容性和战略关注度:冷战后亚太多边经贸合作制度构建的成败分析

冷战结束后,亚太地区以经济合作制度为主的各类制度建设迅速发展,并嵌入到地区秩序中,这些制度的发展经历了不同的历程,产生了不同的结果。从制度变迁理论的视角来看,地区制度的发展历程可以分为制度需求、制度构建和制度的维持与深化三个阶段,不同因素在各阶段发挥的作用不同。具体而言,在亚太地区,能力分配、制度共容性和霸权国对地区的战略关注度这三个变量对于地区经贸合作制度构建的成败起到了决定性的影响。文章将后冷战时期的亚太制度变迁分为四个时期,通过考察各个时期内最具代表性的制度来检验上述理论假设。文章认为,当地区内大国力量对比悬殊时,只有同时具备较高的霸权国战略关注度和较强的制度共容性时,地区合作制度的构建才能成功;当地区内力量对比接近时,地区合作的路径会趋于多元化,具备较高的霸权国战略关注度或具有较高共容性的地区合作制度的构建都可以获得成功。因此对于中国而言,在霸权国对地区合作的战略关注度下降和大国力量对比接近时,要推动当前地区经济合作,需要保持战略定力,更多着眼于地区合作中的互利共赢。

Capacity Allocation,Institutional Compatibility and Strategic Focus:An Analysis of Success and Failure of Multilateral Trade Cooperation Institutions in the Asia Pacific Region

Following the Cold War,the Asia Pacific Region developed a wide range of institutions for economic cooperation which were rapidly integrated into the regional order.The development of these institutions went through different phases and achieved different outcomes.Theories of institutional evolution indicate that the developmental processes of regional institutions can be divided into three phases:institutional need;institutional creation;and institutional maintenance and expansion.Different factors play different roles during each of these phases.This article identifies four distinct periods in the evolution of institutions in the Asia Pacific Region in the Post-Cold War era and attempts to illustrate the above theory by considering the characteristics of representative institutions prominent during each period.As such,when we consider the case of China,as the strategic focus of the hegemonic state vis-à-vis regional cooperation is on the decline,and as great states are trending towards power parity,China needs to maintain sharp strategic clarity if it wants to advance regional economic cooperation,and must emphasize mutual benefit and win-win initiatives within the context of regional cooperation.