“以债生财”还是“因债致贫”？——家庭住房债务对贫困脆弱性的影响

脱贫的长效机制应考虑到未来贫困风险问题，即应关注贫困脆弱性。随着住房债务在家庭债务中的主体地位日益显现，住房债务或将影响家庭的贫困脆弱性。基于2016年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据对两者关系展开研究，结果显示，平均而言，负有住房债务的家庭贫困脆弱性程度显著低于无住房债务的家庭，且以住房债务资产比度量的住房债务压力能够缓解贫困脆弱性。但这种缓解作用并非是持续的，而是表现出“U型”非线性特征。当住房债务资产比低于137.5%时，住房债务主要表现出净“财富效应”，存在“以债生财”的可能；在此之后，“房奴效应”将占主导地位，刺激“因债致贫”现象的发生。当然，家庭特征不同也会使这种影响产生差异。为减缓相对贫困，可进一步提高住房信贷效率、发挥住房信贷效能。

"Making Money from Debt" or "Poverty from Debt"：The Effects of Housing Debts on Household Poverty Vulnerability

The long-term mechanism of poverty alleviation should consider the existence of poverty risk in the future, that is to say, the vulnerability of poverty should be concerned. The continuous rise of the house price makes “house slaves” become a common phenomenon, and the generation of housing debt may have some impact on household poverty vulnerability. Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2016, this paper discusses the relationship between the two. The empirical results show that, on average, the poverty vulnerability of households with housing debt is lower than those without housing debt, and the housing debt pressure measured by housing debt to asset ratio can alleviate the poverty vulnerability. However, further research shows that the mitigation effect is not continuous, but there is an optimal value of 137.5%, showing a “U” nonlinear relationship. That is to say, before the ratio of housing debt to assets reaches 137.5%, the housing debt mainly shows the net “wealth effect”, and there is the possibility of “making money from debt”; after that, the “housing slave effect” will dominate and stimulate the occurrence of “poverty due to debt”. In addition, the relationship between housing debt and poverty vulnerability will also vary according to family characteristics. In order to alleviate relative poverty, the efficiency of housing credit can be further improved.