U.S. Military Interventions and the Risk of Civil Conflict

The historical record of the majority of inter- and intra-state conflicts indicates frequent third-party interventions in these conflicts. In the decades following World War II, the United States has been one of the most frequent interveners in third world internal wars. This study focuses on the repercussions of U.S. military interventions on the intensity of civil conflict and political violence in the targeted nations. A comprehensive empirical analysis suggests that in addition to low per capita income, large populations, high religious fractionalization, and weak governance, the direct and indirect involvement of the U.S. military may also lead to increased civil strife and political violence in the targeted nations. U.S. military involvement increases the probability of political instability and unrest and hence could be one of the many conditions that favor insurgency.