危机冲击与全球贸易“超调式”震荡成因的研究综述

本文从需求减弱效应说、信贷紧缩和生产崩溃效应说、贸易保护主义抬头效应说以及全球垂直一体化分工效应说四个方面，综述了当前学术界关于本轮危机冲击下全球贸易“超调式”震荡的成因研究。但是本文认为，现有研究所揭示的因素虽然都在一定程度上对全球贸易造成了冲击，但仍不足以解释“超调式”震荡的成因。对危机冲击下全球贸易“超调式”震荡成因的解读，必须从国际生产分割深入演进与中间产品存货调整相结合的角度进行分析，这一视角理应成为理论界进一步深入研究的重要方向。

Literature Review on Cause of Crisis Shocks over Excessive Adjustment of Global Trade

Dealing with the mechanism of excessive adjustment of global trade under crisis shocks, the current literature’s analysis includes weak external demand, credit crunch, production collapse, trade protection and vertical integration. This paper argues that the factors that current literature covers can explain the mechanism of excessive adjustment of global trade under crisis shocks to some extent, but has not disclosed the fundament cause, which is the combination of evolution of international labor division and intermediate product stock adjustment. This should be the research direction in the future.