The adolescence-adulthood transition and Robins’s continuity paradox: Criminal career patterns of juvenile and adult sex offenders in a prospective longitudinal birth cohort study |
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| Institution: | 1. Faculty of Social Sciences, Laval University, Quebec City, Canada;2. Leiden Law School, Institute for Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands;3. The Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), Amsterdam, The Netherlands;1. School of Criminology Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive, Burnaby British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6;2. University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7806, 5020, Bergen, Norway;3. Iowa State University 203 East Hall Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011;4. Department of Psychology Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive, Burnaby British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6;1. School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada, V5A 1S6;2. Faculty of Law, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7806, 5020 Bergen, Norway;3. Faculty of Social Sciences, Université Laval, Pavillon Charles-De Koninck 1030, ave. Québec (Québec), Canada, G1V 0A6;4. Faculty of Psychology, University of Bergen P.O. Box 7806, 5020 Bergen, Norway;1. University of California, Irvine, USA;2. University of Southern California, USA |
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| Abstract: | PurposeIt is assumed that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are tomorrow's adult sex offenders (ASO) and ASO were previously JSO. The current study tests these two assumptions using prospective longitudinal data.MethodsUsing data from the 1984 Dutch Birth Cohort study, the study examines the criminal career of JSO and the continuity of sex offending into early adulthood.ResultsThe study findings show much heterogeneity in the criminal careers of JSO suggesting several criminal career outcomes in adulthood. Put differently, the vast majority of JSO do not become ASO while adult sex offending does not require juvenile sex offending. Against the backdrop of this principle, the study found a small group of JSO recidivist at-risk of persisting into adulthood and a group of chronic juvenile offenders who are at-risk of escalating their offending to sex crimes in adulthood.ConclusionsFor the most part, JSO and ASO are two distinct phenomenon. The vast majority of JSO desist from sex offending while the vast majority of ASO started sexually offending in adulthood. As the frequency of general nonsexual offending increases during adolescence, so is the risk of becoming ASO. This group of youth warrants closer scrutiny for prevention programs. |
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