现行国际秩序演变的方向与中国的选择

中国与西方国家使用不同术语来描述现行国际秩序,双方对国际秩序的认识也确实存在明显差异。但是仔细分辨之后,又能发现中国与西方的国际秩序观实际上重叠之处远大于差异之处。2008年金融危机后,国际秩序开始发生重大变化。2020年的新冠肺炎疫情进一步加剧了这一变化。一方面国际格局的变化导致西方国家认为现行国际秩序遭到新兴大国挑战,另一方面西方国家内部对全球化的不满则导致一些西方国家主动挑战现行国际秩序。当前国际秩序演变出现了自由主义色彩消退、民族国家作用逐渐强化的趋势,这将导致中国与西方国家在某些方面的竞争加剧,但也有可能导致双方对国际秩序演变方向的认知差异缩小。只有准确理解国际秩序演变的这些脉络,中国才能更好地进行战略和政策抉择以趋利避害。

The Direction of the International Order and China’s Choice

China and Western countries use different terminology to describe the current international order,toward which the two sides do hold starkly different views.However,a careful analysis of the Chinese and Western views of international order would reveal that overlaps are much greater than differences.Since the financial crisis of 2008,great changes have taken place in the international order.The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further exacerbated this trend.On the one hand,the changes in the international structure led the Western countries to view the current international order as being challenged by emerging powers;on the other hand,the internal dissatisfaction toward globalization led some Western countries to take the initiative to challenge the existing international order.The evolution of the international order is showing a tendency of fading liberalism and a strengthening role of nation-states,which may lead to intensified competition between China and Western countries in some areas,but may also narrow the cognitive differences between the two sides on the trajectory of the international order evolution.Thus,only by accurately understanding the pattens of the international order evolution,would China be able to make better strategic and policy choices to better seize opportunities and avoid harm.