我国离婚率变动趋势及离婚态人群特征分析

从概念辨识入手,利用权威数据,描述近几十年我国离婚率和离婚态的变动趋势及水平。研究发现:我国的离婚率持续增长,超过日本与韩国;因年轻人口总量减少,可结婚人的比例下降,离婚结婚比持续上升。数据分析显示,1982年以来,我国离婚态占比单调上升:就人群特征而言,35-49岁年龄组、男性、中等教育程度人群(1990年除外)、商业服务人员和办事人员(1990年除外)离婚态占比最高,女性的离婚态占比较之男性上升趋势更为明显;就地域分布而言,各省处于离婚态人群的占比呈西高东低、北高南低趋势,东北地区及西部省区城市人群离婚态占比最高。离婚率和离婚态的持续攀升是多重制度、城镇化与市场化结构、家庭与个体特质等因素综合作用的结果。离婚不仅透视出家庭的不稳定性,损害(部分)家庭成员福祉,而且可能引发更大范围的负面效应。在尊重当事人意愿的前提下,必须从源头、过程和后果上加强对离婚行为的社会治理,减少不必要的离婚现象。

The Trend of Divorce Rate in China and the Analysis on the Characteristics of the Population in the Divorce State

Starting from concept identification and using authoritative data,this article describes the changing trend and level of the divorce rate and the divorce state in China in recent decades,and finds that:the divorce rate in China continues to increase,surpassing that in Japan and South Korea;as the total number of young people decreases,the proportion of marriageable people has fallen and the ratio of divorce to marriage has continued to rise.Data analysis shows that,since 1982,the proportion of the divorce state in China has been increasing monotonously,in which,in terms of population characteristics,the proportion of the divorce state is the highest in the age group of 35-49 years old,men,people with secondary education level(except for the year 1990),business service personnel,and office clerks(except for the year 1990),and the proportion of women in the divorce state is more obvious than that of men in the divorce state;in terms of geographical distribution,the proportion of people in the divorce state in all provinces shows a trend of higher in the west and north but lower in the east and south,and the proportion of urban people in the divorce state in Northeast China and the province in Western China is the highest.The continuous rise of the divorce rate and the divorce state is the result of the combined action of the factors such as multiple systems,the structure of urbanization and marketization,and family and individual characteristics.Divorce not only reveals the instability of the family,injures(some)the well-being of family members,but may also have broader negative effects.On the premise of respecting the will of a party concerned,we must strengthen the social governance of the divorce behavior from the source,process,and consequence,and reduce the unnecessary divorce.