美国对华经贸规锁:典型事实、行为逻辑与战略约束

特朗普政府执政后,美国从升级对华关税制裁、重塑国际贸易规则、严控高新技术获取、扩容货币互换协议、打压中国概念股票、推进产业链自主化和"去中国化"六个维度,对中国实施选择性"挂钩"和关键领域"脱钩"的经贸规锁。其行为逻辑,一是为满足国内多元化经济集团的利益诉求,二是基于美国对中国崛起的"威胁认知"和大国战略竞争的"权力逻辑"。从战略约束看,美国开放性利益集团的经济理性、其他经济体的行为取向、中国的结构性国家竞争优势,构成了美国对华经贸规锁的重要制约因素。作为应对,中国需确定"全政府"的战略模式,理解"双循环"的科学内涵,贯彻改革开放的既定方针,重视"一带一路"倡议的战略意义。

U.S. Economic and Trade Confinement against China:Typical Facts,Behavioral Logic and Strategic Limitations

Since the Trump administration took office,the U.S. is carrying out strategic confinement against China with the characteristics of selective coupling and great decoupling in such key fields as upgrading tariff sanctions,reshaping international trade rules,strictly controlling acquisition of high and new technologies,expanding currency swap lines,suppressing China concepts stocks,promoting autonomization and desinicization of industrial chains.The logic behind these behaviors is twofold:On the one hand,satisfying interest demands from various domestic economic groups. On the other hand,U. S. threat perception of China’s rise and "power logic" of great powers’ strategic competition. Nonetheless,U. S. economic and trade confinement against China faces three strategic limitations :economic rationality of U. S. interest groups with opening-up emotion,other economies’ behavioral orientation,and China’s structural national competition advantages. For China to effectively alleviate U.S. pressures,four strategic measures are needed:First,introducing "whole-of-government" approach to safeguard national sovereignty,security,and development interests. Second,deeply understanding the content of "dual circulation". Third,continuing deepening domestic reforms and opening up. Finally,thinking highly of the strategic significance of the implementation of the "Belt and Road" Initiative to hedge U.S. economic and trade confinement against China.