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Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models
Authors:Bas, Muhammet Ali   Signorino, Curtis S.   Walker, Robert W.
Affiliation:Department of Government, Harvard University, CGIS N209, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
Abstract:
Curtis S. Signorino303 Harkness Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 e-mail: curt.signorino{at}rochester.eduRobert W. WalkerDepartment of Political Science, Center for Applied Statistics, Washington University in Saint Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130 e-mail: rww{at}wustl.edu e-mail: mbas{at}gov.harvard.edu (corresponding author) We present a simple method for estimating regressions basedon recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which canbe implemented in most standard statistical packages, involvessequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manneranalogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the techniqueproduces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculateconsistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicateLeblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial marketsand government responses to these attacks. Authors' note: Our thanks to Kevin Clarke, John Londregan, JeffRitter, Ahmer Tarar, and Kuzey Yilmaz for helpful discussionsconcerning this paper. A previous version was presented at the2002 Political Methodology Summer Meeting.
Keywords:
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