21世纪交通肇事犯罪预测

交通肇事犯罪是各种社会与经济矛盾综合反映的结果 ,有着不同于其他犯罪的独特行为特征 ,即可能属于过失犯罪也可能属于故意犯罪。社会与经济发展之间的矛盾与冲突 ,经济、交通高速发展与交通基础条件不足之间的矛盾与冲突 ,决定了交通肇事犯罪现象的存在、继续和发展。在交通肇事犯罪行为特征和心理特征分析的基础上 ,根据交通、经济发展的现状和趋势 ,可以预测 :未来交通肇事犯罪还将呈现相应的发展态势。在交通安全管理水平落后、驾驶员整体素质低下、社会道德水平整体下降的条件下 ,应当从技术预防和社会预防角度进行综合治理。

Forecasting of the Traffic-Accident-Crime(TAC) in the 21 Century

As a result of syntheticalreflection from all sorts of society contradiction and economycontradiction, TAC has its own particularcharacter different from other crimes, because it perhaps not only belong to negligent-TAC but also witting-TAC. It's Contraventions between the development of society and economy which decide thatphenomena of TAC would be existing, keeping and developing, as well as conflicts caused by the high-speed-developing of transportation and economies,but the short of transport basic condition. Based on the analysis of acting characters and crime psychology characters of TAC, we could forecast the some trend of TAC in the future according the actuality or direction of transportation and economy. So, under the condition of behindhandtraffic management level, bad accomplishmentof drivers and the depressing morality, some methods and countermeasure should be adopted by ways of technical preventing or social preventing.