Trends in the Incidence of Legal Problems and in the Use of Lawyers |
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| Authors: | Yakov Avichai |
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| Institution: | Yakov Avichai, until recently the Mathematical Statistician at the American Bar Foundation, is now Director, Property Liability Pricing Research, CNA Insurance, Chicago. |
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| Abstract: | Changes in the law, government regulations, socioeconomic changes, increased consumerism, the public's level of awareness—all these and other factors influence the population's demand over time for lawyers'services. This article analyzes the changes over time in the two elements that determine the demand for lawyers: the number of legal problems encountered by the population and the rate of use of lawyers in solving these problems. After showing that sequential occurrences of legal problems are not independent of each other and are age dependent, the author develops a mathematical model that explains the variability in the present number of problems encountered by different age groups. The number of problems is found to result from a relatively mild accumulation with age of legal problems, coupled with a strong increase in the number of problems from generation to generation. The analysis of individual legal problems reveals a variety of patterns from problem to problem in both the level of occurrence and the rate of use of lawyers for such problems. The author concludes that the combined effect of occurrence and utilization will operate toward a continuing increase in the demand for lawyers'services at least for the very near future. |
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