国家双边关系的定量衡量:突破与局限——评《中外关系鉴览1950-2005:中国与大国关系定量衡量》

本文首先运用衡量的效度和信度两个指标对《中外关系鉴览1950—2005:中国与大国关系定量衡量》(简称《鉴览》)的衡量质量进行了评估,认为《鉴览》所创建的衡量方法与原先的一些事件数据分析(event data analysis)方法相比,具有较高的效度和信度;其次,将《鉴览》一书和传统国际关系史书进行了比较,认为《鉴览》一书不同之处在于对历史事件的分类整理、数量化描述和明确历史事件累积效应的原理和大小;最后,提出了《鉴览》一书在理论上的三个突破是区分了关系分值和事件分值、区分了事件的不同影响力和涵盖了双向事件。而其主要局限在于对历史数据的理论分析不够充分以及定量衡量和定性判断之间存在不契合。

The Quantitative Measurement of Bilateral Relations:Breakthroughs and Limitations

This paper evaluates China's Foreign Relations with Major Powers by the Numbers(1950-2005)(hereinafter referred to as China's Foreign Relations) by means of the validity and reliability of measurement,and points out that the measurement methods created by this book has higher validity and reliability than other event data analysis ones.Secondly,by comparing China's Foreign Relations with the other books on traditional international relations history,this paper believes that the former distinguishes itself b...