大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。

The Asian Moment of Major Country Game and Dual-level Balance of Power--Perceptions and Stances of Russian Think Tanks regarding China-U.S. Economic and Trade Frictions

Russian think tanks have a unique understanding and expectation of Sino-U.S. economic and trade frictions, and they are complementary to official stances of the Kremlin. Behind economic and trade frictions is the competition between these two countries for military, political, scientific and technological, regional and global leadership. As a result, the domestic agenda and foreign policies of these two countries will be profoundly affected and spillover effects will emerge: forming a bipolar structure in the Asian region. Even if these two countries will reach a compromise on economic and trade issues due to domestic and international political factors, China will not give up its ambitions to gain world science and technology leadership, nor will the United States abandon its strategic intention to curb China’s momentum for development. Russia should continue to maintain economic and military cooperation with China, avoiding the deterioration of relations with the United States and the West, promoting the "Greater Eurasian Partnership" initiative in the Asia-Pacific region. Based on the deduction of their own interests, Russian policy analysts define Sino-U.S. economic and trade frictions as a game of great powers. The corresponding policy recommendations reflect Russia’s double-level balancing strategy aiming at balancing both the United States and China globally and regionally. Russia will play the role of a strategic balancer with the participation of other Asian countries, taking advantage of the overall confrontation between China and the United States, and reversing its adverse external development environment. Russia’s invigorating role in the Asia-Pacific region will lead to the establishment of a new model of bilateral and trilateral competition and cooperation.