Japan and the cross-Taiwan Strait conflict |
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Authors: | Shaohua Hu |
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Institution: | (1) Wagner College, USA;(2) the Institute of World Economy and Politics, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China |
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Abstract: | An armed conflict between Taiwan and China is not unthinkable in the future. For historical, geographical, economic, and diplomatic
reasons, Japan would not be able to stand on the sidelines. Relying on three major concepts—national interests, path dependence
and balance of power, this paper explores Japan’s three possible roles in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. First, Japan
could pass the buck, staying out of the conflict as much as possible and providing at most logistical and intelligence support
for an American military operation. Second, it could balance power, throwing its weight behind Washington against Beijing.
Finally, it could play peacemaker. At the end of the article, the author discusses several key factors that would shape Tokyo’s
decision-making in the event of a cross-Strait conflict and assesses the relative probability of each option.
He is the author ofExplaining Chinese Democratization (Praeger, 2000). His recent research interests include Chinese pacifism and China’s historical place in the world. For their
comments, the author would like to thank anonymous reviewers, Natalie Edwards, Mei Guan, Sujian Guo, James Hsiung, Wade Hudson,
Erica Johnson, Chien Liu, Andrew Needle, Anne Schotter, Steve Snow, Liang Tang, Wallace Thies, Yong Wang, and Kim Worthy. |
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Keywords: | Conflict Japan China Taiwan the U S |
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