《校车安全条例(草案)》的政策议程分析——基于多源流模型的视角

校车安全问题何以进入决策者的视野是理解《校车安全条例(草案征求意见稿)》得以快速发布的关键。采用案例分析法,从多源流理论视角对校车安全的源流发展、焦点事件和政策行动者等方面进行整体分析,研究表明:校车安全政策议程是政策企业家在政策窗口开启之时推动问题、政策和政治三大源流汇合的结果。相比垃圾桶模型、触发机制模型和议程设置理论,多源流模型在本案例中更具解释力。同时,多源流模型面临中国情境,源流之间存在相关性,而非完全独立。拥有双重身份的政策企业家具有从政府机构中打开"政治窗口"的可能性,这为多源流模型的本土化应用与后续研究提供了一个可供考察的角度。最后,指出阻碍校车安全政策议程设置的主要因素包括,制度性利益表达通道不通畅、政府部门对焦点事件处理能力和水平不高、管理权限划分模糊。为此,应创建有效的制度性利益表达通道、积极关注媒体舆情,扩大问题来源、科学合理划分管理权限。这些问题及对策对于其他政策领域也具备一定的借鉴意义,这也是本研究对政策制定者的启迪所在。

Policy Agenda Analysis of " The School Bus Safety Regulations(Draft)" : Based on the Multiple Streams Model Perspective

It is critical for understanding "The School Bus Safety Regulations(Draft)" rapidly issued that how school bus safety problem comes into policy-makers’ view.Using the multiple streams model to analyze streams development,focus events and policy actors of school bus safety,the study shows that school bus safety agenda is the consequence of confluence of three major streams-the problem,policy and politics-promoted by policy entrepreneurs when the policy window opens.Compared with the garbage-can model,the trigger mechanism model and the theory of agenda setting,the multiple streams model has more explanatory power in this case.Also,the model needs to face Chinese context that there is a correlation among the three streams,rather than completely independence.It is likely that policy entrepreneurs who have dual identities can open the policy window within governmental agencies,which provides an observable perspective for localization application and further research.Finally,study points that the influence factors of school bus safety policy agenda include obstructed institutional interest expression channel,lower ability and level of solving focus events,indefinite administration authority.Given this,we should establish effective institutional interest expression channel,show active concern to public opinion,expand problem sources and compartmentalize the administration authority reasonably.These problems and suggestions have reference significances for other policy fields,which is what the enlightenment of this study can give policy-makers.