税收结构改变的长期影响与转型特征

提高直接税比重是优化我国税制结构和调节收入分配的重要实现途径，但可能同时对经济增长和社会福利产生影响。当政府降低消费税，如果维持长期总税收不变，那么不管是提高工资收入税税率还是资本收入税税率，经济中的资本积累和生产规模都会有一定程度的缩减；从长期看，提高直接税比重会降低消费者福利，但是转型过程中可能会有部分代际受益。相比于提高资本收入税，提高工资收入税税率在长期给经济增长和消费者福利带来的负效应更为明显。

The Long-run and Short-run Effects of Tax Structure Reform

Increasing the proportion of direct tax is an important way to optimize China's tax structure and improve income distribution, but it may also affect economic growth and social welfare. When the consumption tax rate is reduced, if long run tax revenue remains unchanged, then wage income tax or capital income tax needs to be increased. In both case, capital accumulation and aggregate production will be reduced. In the long run, increasing the proportion of direct tax will reduce consumer's welfare, but some generations may benefit in the short run. The negative effects on economic growth and welfare is larger when the wage income tax rate is increased.