地区竞争、选举政治与“一带一路”债务可持续性——剖析所谓“债务陷阱外交”论

从2017年开始,国际舆论较为频繁地使用"债务陷阱外交"描述中国"一带一路"倡议背后的战略目的。从经济角度衡量,中国给"一带一路"沿线国家的贷款条件并不苛刻,且在中国推出"一带一路"之前,大量中低收入国家的债务负担就已经出现明显增长趋势,并不存在"一带一路"引发系统性"债务陷阱"的问题。因此,"债务陷阱外交"论缺乏经济基础。进而可以发现,东道国及其所处的地区政治环境在"债务陷阱外交"论产生与传播的过程中扮演了重要角色。为此,本文构建了一个地区环境与国内政治选举相互作用的分析框架,通过比较案例研究分析了"债务陷阱外交"论在典型国家出现、传播与发挥影响的机制。"一带一路"项目往往与东道国执政者"政治捆绑",国内权力更迭导致的国家发展战略变动,为该国政府改变自身对"一带一路"的政策选择创造了空间,其所处的地区政治环境也显著影响政策变化的幅度。中国在推进"一带一路"建设时,既要与东道国进行双边互动,充分重视东道国国内不同力量的博弈,也要注意到沿线国家所处地区政治环境对该国能否持续参与"一带一路"构成制约。我们需要以一种更加多维的视角进行思考,超越传统的紧盯美国的对外政策模式,为"一带一路"的顺利实施营造更加良好的政治环境。

Regional Competition,Election Politics,and BRI Debt Sustainability——An Analysis of the“Debt Trap Diplomacy”Allegation

Since 2017,"debt trap diplomacy"has been used frequently in international media to discuss the strategic purpose behind the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).From the economic perspective,China’s lending conditions to countries along the BRI are not harsh.Even before the introduction of the BRI,a large number of low-and middle-income countries had already witnessed increasing debt burden.There is no systemic evidence for a"debt trap"caused by the BRI.This article argues that the BRI host countries and their regional political environments have played a key role in the production and diffusion of the"debt trap diplomacy"allegation.The author constructs an analytical framework for the interaction between regional political environment and domestic political elections,and analyzes the emergence,diffusion,and impact of the"debt trap diplomacy"allegation in typical BRI route countries through comparative case study.The author finds that the BRI projects are often"politically bound"with host countries’political leaders,and that changes in national development strategies caused by the changes in domestic power structures have created space for the host countries’policy adjustment towards the BRI.Moreover,regional political environment can also significantly affect the magnitude of policy adjustment of a host country.When promoting the BRI,China should adopt a multi-dimensional perspective,and go beyond traditional bilateral diplomacy to pay greater attention to the development of the domestic politics of a host country and its regional political environment.