基于GTD的教育机构恐怖袭击实证分析及防范策略

在反恐形势日趋严峻的大环境下,教育机构已逐渐成为恐怖分子袭击的重点目标。基于GTD数据库中所收录的2009-2018年恐怖袭击的数据,以教育机构为研究对象,从教育机构恐怖袭击的发生数量、地域分布、袭击手段,以及所造成的后果等方面进行梳理,并对两个典型案例(两个国家的情况)进行分析,发现教育机构恐怖袭击主要有以下特点:袭击频发但呈下降趋势、袭击地域分布不平衡、袭击手段以爆炸为主袭击损失小但引起恐慌大等。对教育机构恐怖袭击,应从安保措施、情报预警、危险品管控以及宣传教育等方面加强防范。

Empirical Analysis and Prevention Strategy of Terrorist Attacks on Educational Institutions based on GTD

Educational institutions have gradually become the key targets of terrorist attacks in more and more severe anti-terrorism situation,Based on the data of terrorist attacks from 2009 to 2018 included in GTD database, with educational institutions as the research object, the number, geographical distribution, means and consequences of terrorist attacks on educational institutions are sorted out, and two countries as typical samples are analyzed. Main characteristics of such kind of attack include very often but decreasing frequencies, imbalance in area distribution, explosion-oriented means, and low damage but great panic. Security measures, intelligence early warning, dangerous goods control and anti-terrorist propaganda should be strengthened to prevent the terrorist attack.