天津市地面沉降风险分析研究

地面沉降是城市主要地质灾害之一,天津市尤为严重。从地面沉降风险角度出发,运用AHP模糊综合评判法,对天津市地面沉降风险进行分析研究。在纵览前人研究基础上,结合自然灾害风险分析理论和天津市实际状况,建立天津市地面沉降风险评价指标体系,该指标体系由5个一级指标和18个二级指标组成。运用层次分析法确定指标相对权重,并选取5组不同权重集进行敏感度分析,以减少主观因素造成的判断误差。由于最大隶属度原则本身不足,采用加权平均法处理评判结果,得到风险综合指数,将5组风险综合指数求平均,进行最终评价。结果表明,天津市地面沉降风险水平在中等和较高之间,更偏向于较高。这与实际情况基本吻合,将该方法用于天津市地面沉降风险分析,可为防灾减灾提供科学依据。

Risk Analysis on Land Subsidence in Tianjin

Land subsidence is one of the main urban geological disasters, and is significantly serious in Tianjin. Risk analysis on land subsidence in Tianjin was carried out with AHP (The Analytic Hierarchy Process) fuzzy comprehensive assessment. The index system of land subsidence risk assessment in Tianjin, composed of 5 first-grade factors and 18 second-grade factors, was established based on natural disaster risk analysis and actual state of Tianjin. Using AHP method, weights of each factor of the index system were determined and sensitivity analysis was then applied to prevent errors resulted from subjective judgments. The risk comprehensive index that reflects the risk level of land subsidence was obtained by means of the weighted average. It indicates that risk of land subsidence in Tianjin is over moderate. This result is reasonable and provides a scientific basis for land subsidence disaster prevention and reduction.