基于GIS的都市应急疏散系统

我国是灾害频发的国家之一。自然灾害如近日发生的印度洋大海啸、工业事故以及潜在的恐怖袭击等严重威胁都市人民的生命安全。一旦发生重大灾害性事件，往往需要在短时间内安全地进行大规模紧急疏散高密集人群。实施科学的应急救灾策略，是减少灾害（事故）后果严重性的重要措施之一。本文提出了基于时变动态流的网络优化模型，该模型以最短疏散时间为目标函数，同时对疏散路径、疏散目的地以及疏散开始时间进行优化。并以此优化模型为基础，初步建立了基于GIS的大规模应急疏散系统。该系统可以模拟优化各种灾害条件下最优应急疏散策略，为政府有关部门在城市建设和城市防灾规划中的决策提供科学依据。该系统可用于城市应急规划设计和实时应急管理指挥。

The city urgent evacuate system based on GIS

Recent Indonesia tsunami disaster has demonstrated that timely evacuation should be a means of mitigation to the ill-effect. Even if an effective disaster detection system has been established, absolute prevention of disasters and restricting their spread may still be impossible in some cases. Evacuation of people from the hazardous region(s) is per se a way to reduce the ill effects of disasters and evacuation planning is prima facie a critical component in emergency management. In this article, a GIS-based modeling system for urban evacuation is proposed to maximize the performance of the emergency management system. The system is supported by a mathematical optimization model of large-scale evacuation based on a time-varying quickest flow problem (TVQFP). Basically, by solving this problem we may at least acquire the following information: vehicles routes through the road network, warning schedule for different zones in a phased evacuation process and destination allocation for each district. The model is linked to a GIS, which provides geographic data (maps of thtrerrain, population distributions, etc.) and implements visualization of output. This proposed system is useful for devising evacuation plans in advance as sell as real-time management under disaster.