| 我国火灾起数的灰色拓扑预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜学鹏,徐志胜.我国火灾起数的灰色拓扑预测[J].刑警与科技,2006(2):58-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜学鹏 徐志胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所 长沙410075 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于灰色拓扑预测理论方法,对我国火灾发生情况进行了分析预测。在对我国55年(1950-2004年)火灾统计资料时序分布特征分析的基础上,选取一组阈值,建立不同阈值所对应的时间序列的GM(1,1)模型群,用此模型群对未来可能出现一定阈值范围内火灾起数的年份进行了预测,并运用预测失效点非唯一性原理绘制了拓扑预测曲线。经精度检验,所建模型群的精度为一级,具有较好的可靠性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 火灾 灰色理论 拓扑预测 GM(1 1)模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-2396[2006]05-0058-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年4月13日 |
Grey Topological Method in Forecasting Fire Occurred in China |
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| JIANG Xue-peng,XU Zhi-sheng.Grey Topological Method in Forecasting Fire Occurred in China[J].Criminal Police & Technology,2006(2):58-61. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Xue-peng XU Zhi-sheng |
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| Institution: | Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology Institute, Central-South University, Changsha 410075,China |
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| Abstract: | Fire is one of serious disasters in China. The author have analyzed and forecasted the fire occurred in China by using topological forecast method which belongs to grey system theory. On the basis of analyzing characteristics of time-series distribution of fire occurred from 1950 to 2004, author determined a group of threshold values, established GM(1,1) model in groups according to the time-series, forecasted the time fire occurred in future by using GM(1,1) mode, apply Non-uniqueness theory of null forecast points to draw the forecast curve. The precision testing result showed models were accurate, scientific and practical, and the forecast results will be of a certain guiding significant to relative departments. |
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| Keywords: | fire grey theory topological forecast method GM(1 1)model |
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