论《京都议定书》对国际政治和国际经济的潜在影响

《京都议定书》是国际社会在防止全球气候变暖的国际合作方面取得的一份具有里程碑意义的国际法文件。《京都议定书》对国际政治将产生如下影响:发展中国家,尤其是中国、印度等发展中大国承受着越来越大的减排压力;推动欧盟一体化的进程,并进一步提升欧盟的国际政治地位;发展中国家阵营内部呈现出进一步分化的趋势。《京都议定书》对国际经济的影响主要表现在:对各国总体的经济福利产生影响;《京都议定书》产生的“碳泄漏”问题可能使得缔约国在竞争力和产业结构调整等方面发生一系列变化;对国际资本流动产生影响;《京都议定书》将推动能源技术的进步,尤其是推动低碳技术和高能效技术的创新与扩散。

Potential Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on International Politics and Economy

The Kyoto Protocol is another important legal achievement made by international community in the course of addressing climate change. Its impacts on international politics are as follows: the developing countries will encounter more and more pressures of reducing greenhouse gas emission; the international status of European Union will be gradually promoted; the split trends of the developing countries will be more and more serious. Its impacts on international economy will be as follows: national economic welfare of different countries will be affected; international capital flows will be affected; the competitiveness and industrial structure of different countries will be affected to some extent; the technologies of low-carbon and high energy-efficiency will be promoted.