Relationship between reported crime rates and victimization survey results: An empirical and analytical study

Changes over time in crime as measured by reported crime counts and victimization survey counts are compared. A simple analysis is done using data from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration's (LEAA) National Crime Survey for the years 1973, 1974, and 1975. These data are used to provide some understanding of why Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) results for these years show a much greater increase in crime than the LEAA/Census Bureau National Crime Surveys. A mathematical model is constructed to determine whether changes in the proportion of victimization reported to the authorities produces systematic bias in reported crime estimates of changes in actual victimizations. It is found that reported crime counts: (1) either exaggerate the amount of changes in victimizations or, (2) tend to misrepresent the direction of change in victimizations. It is highly likely that the amount of measurement error in changes in reported crime is significantly large in comparison with, if not larger than, the normal amounts of change in reported crime.