历史演进视角下的欧盟与北约关系走向——兼析拜登当选的影响

自欧盟确立共同安全与防务政策以来,欧盟独立防务与北约之间存在着“相互替代”和“相互增强”两种论调。争论焦点在于价值观念、威胁评估和战略文化、军事和民事能力、国防工业和支出。在过去几年,欧盟与北约的关系也围绕上述四个方面发生变化。具体而言,欧盟与北约之间总体上呈现以合作为主、竞争为辅、两者同步增强的发展态势。美国新任总统拜登承诺修复美国与盟友的关系,包括进一步加强北约。同时,美、欧将在价值观念上回归“旧常态”,在威胁评估和战略文化上进一步靠拢,在民事和军事手段的运用以及增加国防工业投入上也会有更多共识和共同行动。因此,欧盟与北约的关系将进一步呈现相互增强的态势,但前提是欧盟的战略自主建设不只是出于做强自身,而是更多地为了使欧、美双方公平承担相应的责任。

The Evolution of EU-NATO Relations and What to Expect during the Biden Administration

Since the introduction of the European Union’s Common Security and Defense Policy,there has been a long-running debate on the relationship between the EU and NATO pitting those who argue for a substitutional relationship against those who regard the two as complementary.The debate centers on four dimensions:values,threat assessment and strategic culture,military and civilian capabilities,and defense industry and expenditures.Since Brexit and Donald Trump’s election,the relationship between the EU and NATO have undergone some significant changes in the four dimensions.First,with the return of U.S.unilateralism under President Trump,value divergences between Washington and Brussels have become more prominent.Second,despite the differences,threat perceptions in the United States and EU remain similar,with increasing support for the integrated use of military and civilian means.Third,the EU and NATO promote their complementary comparative advantages,but the EU’s goal of strengthening its military has touched a nerve in NATO.Fourth,the EU and NATO still seek to strengthen cooperation despite concerns about the EU’s increased investment in defense industry.Even as competition increases,the EU and NATO remain each other’s chief security partner,and cooperation will still define their relationship going forward.With President Biden’s traditional worldview and multilateralist diplomacy,a new convergence is expected between the EU and NATO so long as Brussels’pursuit of strategic autonomy does not come at the expense of the U.S.goal of transatlantic burden sharing.