| 灰色系统理论在犯罪动态预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘小娟,高连生.灰色系统理论在犯罪动态预测中的应用[J].中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版),2005,21(1):44-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘小娟 高连生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京市公安局宣武分局,北京,100052
2. 北京航空航天大学,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 犯罪动态预测,是指采用定量分析方法,依据时间数列资料的自身规律对某些现象未来发展的趋向、水平和程度进行的一种计量和推测。影响犯罪的变量错综复杂,因此反映治安状况的发案数经常上下波动。运用灰色系统理论分析、预测犯罪动态发展变化规律,对科学决策、优化警力部署,实现对犯罪的精准打击都有着极其重大的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 犯罪预测 应用 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-2140(2005)01-0044-05 |
Application of Grey System Theory to Prediction of Dynamic Tendency of Crimes |
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| LIU Xiao -juan GAO Lian - sheng.Application of Grey System Theory to Prediction of Dynamic Tendency of Crimes[J].Journal of Chinese People‘s Public Security University:Social Sciences Edition,2005,21(1):44-48. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiao -juan GAO Lian - sheng |
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| Abstract: | The Grey System theory and its application to the prediction of dynamic tendency of crimes are discussed. The optimal GM (1, 1) was applied to the prediction of the figure of crime yearly and monthly. The tested accuracy and the results calculated by the model show that the model is reliable and accurate. Therefore the application of Grey System theory is feasible and reasonable for the prediction of dynamic tendency of crimes. |
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| Keywords: | Grey System theory prediction of crimes application |
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