空间效应视角下中国省域碳排放总量的驱动因素分析

运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析中国省域碳排放的空间效应及驱动因素的结果显示，中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性和集群趋势，并主要集中在经济发达、人口密集和能源消费强度大的地区；能源消费强度、人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放总量影响显著，其中能源消费的影响最大；城市化、产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的影响不显著。该研究结论为我国城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量、国家和地方政府建立相应的碳减排鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制，以及各省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式具有决策参考意义。

Analysis of Driving Factors of Chinese Provincial Overall Carbon Emissions from a Spatial Effects Persepective

This paper analyses the spatial effects and driving factors of Chinese provincial carbon emissions by using spatial economic models. The results show that there is significant spatial correlation and obvious cluster trend in China＇s provincial carbon emissions and mainly concentrating on the areas with developed economy, intensive population and high energy consumption intensity. The consumption of energy intensity, population scales and per capita GDP influence the carbon emissions significantly, and the influence of energy consumption intensity is the biggest factor. While, urbanization, industrial structure and technology innovation do not have notable effect on carbon emissions. Such conclusions have relevant decision-making reference significance for controlling carbon emissions increment in the process of urbanization and for upgrading of the industrial structure, as well as for the state and the local governments setting up corresponding encouraging policies and technology research and development support mechanism, and for provinces to construct low carbon economy development models with the regional characteristics.