对外贸易、人均收入与产业结构演进关系的实证分析--以云南省为例

产业结构演进对一个国家或地区经济社会发展起着重要的作用,而产业结构的协整分析又是一种有效的认识工具。云南省1978~2004年出口、进口及人均收入对产业结构的促进作用的协整分析表明:四个变量之间存在惟一的协整关系,出口对产业结构升级有正相关作用,进口则阻碍产业结构升级,而人均收入对产业结构的影响不明显,产业结构成长的“本质变量”逐渐增大。

A Positivist Analysis of the Development Relation between Foreign Trade, Per Capita Income and Industrial Structure: A Case Study of Yunnan Province

The development of industrial structure plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region or a country,and the cointegration analysis of industrial structure is a good tool for correct understanding.The cointegration analysis of the impacts of the import,export and per capita income on the industrial structure from 1978 to 2004 in Yunnan Province has reached the following results: There exists one cointegration relation between the four variables;export has a positive impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure while import has a negative impact;per capita income has little impact;the "essential variable" of the development of industrial structure is on the increase.