新冠肺炎疫情对宏观经济的影响分析及政策建议

该文通过对比分析发现,由于疫情影响地域范围、停复工时间和经济结构等因素存在差异,新冠肺炎疫情对经济的短期影响会大于2003年非典疫情;而且,由于部分民企和居民等微观主体的抗风险能力更弱,存在传导形成次生风险的可能。因此,必须坚持疫情防控和经济托底相结合,发挥逆周期政策作用,切实降低此次疫情的负面经济影响。

Analysis of the Macroeconomic Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic and Policy Recommendations

Through comparative analysis, this paper finds that the short-term economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic will be greater than the 2003 SARS epidemic, due to the differences in impact of the epidemic on regional scope, the time of returning to work, and changes in economic structure. Moreover, as some private entities and residents have weaker anti-risk capabilities, there is a possibility that risks will be transmitted. Therefore, we must adhere to the combination of epidemic prevention and sustaining economic growth, using the countercyclical policy to effectively reduce the negative economic impact of the epidemic.