太空安全秩序构建中的体系压力与战略指向

在当前“一超多强”的国际体系中,美国加大太空威慑不仅直接给对手带来清晰的威胁,还导致国际太空安全日益滑向军备竞赛和安全困境。这种由美国追求太空霸权所导致的国际体系层面的变化又反过来塑造着当前太空安全关系,促使其他各国在体系压力下作出包含反威慑在内的复杂应对。除了来自国际体系层面的安全压力,各国的太空安全战略选择还受到太空力量功效、太空法规意识、战略协调、国家互动情势、政治过程等中介变量的影响。这些中介变量不但影响国家对太空安全的认知,而且一段时间内会导致国家间太空安全决策的效率竞争型社会化。不过,随着国际社会过程不断延伸发展,太空力量功效和太空法规意识增强使相关国家安全决策更为谨慎和规范。全球化曲折推进中的战略沟通和政策协调使国家间太空安全互动情势由进化冲突向进化合作转变。在各国保持战略审慎的前提下,太空力量的多元化有助于构建包容、普惠、和谐的新太空安全秩序。太空全球性实质引领的共同利益观念又将助推人类命运共同体的构建。

System Pressure and Strategic Direction in the Construction of Space Security Order

In the current international system with one superpower and several major powers,the US efforts to reinforce its space deterrence capacity has not only posed clear-cut threats to its adversaries but also fueled a new arms race and security dilemma in space.Changes in the international system caused by the US pursuit of space hegemony,in turn,are reshaping the current space security relations and prompting other countries to make complex responses and anti-deterrence measures under the systemic pressure.Apart from the systemic security pressure,choices about space security strategies by various countries are also affected by such intervening variables as efficacy of space power,awareness of space laws,strategic coordination,interactions among nations,political processes.These variables not only affect nations’perceptions of space security,but also lead to the efficiency-competitive socialization when nations are making decisions about space security within a certain period of time However,with the continuous extension and development of international social process,efficacy of space power and the heightened awareness of space laws will make the security decision-making process of relevant countries more prudent and normative.The strategic communication and policy coordination in the tortuous advancement of globalization will transform space security interactions between countries from being conflicting to cooperative.On the premise that all countries maintain their strategic prudence,the diversification of space power will help build a new space security order featuring inclusiveness,reciprocity and harmony.The concept of common interests upheld by space globalization will promote the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind.