同族群平叛优势理论再思考：以印度平息锡克叛乱为例

同族群优势主要包括当地环境、人力情报和民众动员等三个方面,各方都有机会去利用同族群优势,争取在少数族群叛乱与反叛乱斗争态势中的优势。政府平叛策略应强调发挥温和派的作用,从而在同族群因素方面削弱、抵消乃至胜过叛乱组织的相对优势。同族群平叛优势的作用机制在于控制人口和争夺民心两个方面,当政府控制足够多的当地人口时,叛乱组织就无法在族群内部招募到足够的人员,以补充在政府平叛行动中损失的成员;而拥有民众支持的意义则在于,虽然有了民众支持并不必然平息叛乱,但是没有民众支持是无法平息叛乱的,叛乱组织将一直具备持续甚至升级叛乱的民众基础。为了考察同族群平叛优势的效用,根据温和派是否具备相对于叛乱组织的实力优势和是否拥有平叛行动主导权,有四种不同策略下的平叛效果考察框架。结合印度政府治理和平息锡克叛乱各个阶段有代表性的平叛行动,详细解读印度政府、锡克叛乱组织和温和派在各阶段的策略选择,以及如何影响同族群优势的平叛效果。

Rethinking the Co-Ethnicity Advantages in Counter-Insurgency:A Case Study on India’s Handling of Sikh Insurgency

This paper argues that all parties in ethnic minority-related insurgency movements and counter-insurgency(COIN)operations can stand an equal chance to take co-ethnicity advantages,making full use of local environments,human intelligence and public mobilization.In order to undermine,neutralize or prevail over insurgent groups,the government should opt for a counter-insurgency strategy that gives full play to the moderate factions.The working mechanism lies in developing better control over the local population and winning the hearts and minds of the local people.When the government is able to control a large proportion of the local people,it becomes difficult for the insurgent groups to recruit enough people to replenish their member losses in COIN.While winning the local hearts and minds doesn’t necessarily lead to the demise of insurgent groups,the counter-insurgency operations are doomed to fail without the support from the locals.This paper identifies four COIN strategies based on whether the local moderates have a leadership position in COIN operations and whether they can take full advantage of their position of strength vis-à-vis insurgent groups,and thus establishes a framework to explore and evaluate their effectiveness in using co-ethnicity advantages.With a case study on the Sikh insurgency movement around the 1980s,the paper intends to demonstrate how the Indian government,moderate factions and insurgent groups adjusted their strategies at different stages and the impacts and outcomes of these adjustments.