中美在亚太地区的安全矛盾：演变与逻辑

近年来,中美在亚太地区的安全矛盾持续发酵,逐渐形成安全利益、理念和地区安全秩序构想的全面对立态势,成为影响中美和平共处的重要因素。秩序疑虑与热点问题的对立是中美在亚太地区安全矛盾的主要表现。中美亚太安全矛盾的全方位突显,根本上源于两国力量对比的变化以及由此引发的权力转移态势,是中美总体力量差距背景下局部力量平衡的表现。这种力量平衡表现为:中国作为地区经济中心与美国作为地区安全中心的“二元结构平衡”;中国作为陆权大国与美国作为海权大国的“陆海权力平衡”;在中国近海区域,中美权力均衡态势初步形成。在此过程中,中美对既有安全矛盾管理的失效以及彼此安全威胁认知的反复塑造,客观上增强了矛盾对立的烈度,安全困境逐步形成。随着权力消长和政策互动,中美在亚太地区的安全困境,逐步呈现出从经典安全困境转向“国家引导型的安全困境”加剧的趋势。未来,中美亚太安全矛盾仍然会受到结构性因素的影响,而经济相互依存趋势、技术发展引发的军事威慑变化、意识形态竞争以及非传统安全合作等因素,则将决定既有安全矛盾是否会走向冲突。

China-US Security Contradictions in the Asia-Pacific Region: Evolution and Logic

In recent years,security contradictions between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region have continued to ferment and the two countries have been caught up in fully fledged confrontations in terms of security interests and concepts as well as a comprehensive and long-term vision of the regional security order,which has exerted great negative influence over the peaceful coexistence between the two countries.A huge divergence of views over the regional security order and hot issues are the main manifestation of China-US security contradictions in the Asia-Pacific region.Their security contradictions that loom larger in the Asia-Pacific region are fundamentally due to the changes in regional power configuration and the ensuing transfer of power,which gives full expression to“partial balance of power”in the context of the gap between their overall national strengths.This partial balance of power is manifested in the following three aspects:(1)the“dual structural balance”with China being a regional economic center and the US a regional security center,(2)the“balance of land power and sea power”with China being a land power and the US a sea power,and(3)the emerging balance of power between China and the US in China’s offshore areas.In this process,poor management of security contradictions and the enhanced threat perception of both sides have intensified contradictions and confrontations,accelerating the formation of a security dilemma.Along with the growth and decline of power as well as policy interactions,the security dilemma between China and the US in the Asia-Pacific region has further aggravated with a shift from a classic security dilemma to a“state-induced security dilemma”.Although the security contradictions between the two countries in the Asia-Pacific region will still be constrained by structural components,it is those factors like the future of economic interdependence,the changing technology-driven military deterrence,ideological competition,and non-traditional security cooperation that determine whether the existing security contradictions will lead to conflicts or not.