联盟困境、理性选择与澳美同盟的有限升级

任何联盟内部都存在联盟困境(即"被抛弃"与"被牵连")。在"美主澳从"的澳美同盟中,澳大利亚也面临着联盟困境:如果强调战略自主性则担心"被抛弃";如果强化澳美同盟则担心"被牵连"。在中国快速崛起、美国战略收缩和中美战略竞争不断加剧的背景下,澳大利亚认为有限升级澳美同盟——对美国欲"距"还迎——是其缓解联盟困境的理性选择。首先,有限升级澳美同盟不仅可以大大降低"被抛弃"的风险,而且有望提升地区影响力,同时有助于提升澳在中美战略布局中的重要性。其次,由于中美两国仍将长期维持"斗而不破"的状态,澳大利亚"被牵连"至中美军事冲突中的可能性很小,而当下澳美同盟的有限强化对成熟稳定的中澳关系冲击总体有限。澳大利亚为了缓解联盟困境、提升外交地位,有限升级澳美同盟,不仅使澳大利亚收益颇丰、成本可控,收益大于成本,而且中澳关系保持有限紧张是符合澳大利亚国家利益的理性选择。

Alliance Dilemma, Rational Choice and the Limited Upgrading of Australia-US Alliance

In any alliance,there exists an alliance dilemma featuring"abandonment"and"entrapment".Australia’s subordinate position in the Australia-US alliance also creates a dilemma for it to face.Australia fears"abandonment"if it highlights strategic autonomy and dreads"entrapment"if it further consolidates its alliance with the United States.After assessing and weighing the international and regional situations such as the rapid rise of China,the strategic contraction of the UnitedStates and the intensifying strategic competition between the two above-mentioned countries,Australia believes that the limited upgrading of the Australia-US alliance,deepening the bilateral relations while keeping a respectful distance,is a rational choice to ease the alliance predicament.Firstly,the limited upgrading of the Australia-US alliance will not only greatly reduce the risk of"abandonment",but also enhance Australia’s regional influence and elevate its importance in the Sino-US strategic layout.Secondly,since China and the United States would possibly be caught up in a strategic stalemate for a long time,the odds are low for Australia to get"entrapped"in the military conflicts between the two countries.It can be predicted that Australia’s current efforts to partially upgrade its alliance with the United States will not exert great impact on China-Australia relations.Australia is convinced that the limited upgrading of the Australia-US alliance and a limited tension between China and itself can alleviate the plight facing the alliance,enhance Australia’s diplomatic status and serve its national interests.