从社会运动到内战的演变机制 ——基于中东变局的考察

受到中东变局波及的中东国家，尽管结构背景大同小异，但各国爆发的社会运动带来的国内影响却截然不同，如突尼斯和埃及发生了较为平和的变革，而利比亚、叙利亚却爆发了内战。社会运动在不同的国家之所以产生不同的结果，原因在于抗议者能否形成跨阶层动员以及军队的立场选择。抗议者形成跨阶层动员，是社会运动得以持续并实现规模扩大的前提；在大规模社会运动面前，军队内部是否发生分裂，则决定该国是否爆发内战。就此而言，社会运动演变为内战需要两个条件，一个是形成跨阶层动员，一个是部分军队支持抗议活动或在抗议活动中保持中立。这一分析模式有助于研究者对社会运动是否会演变为内战进行预测。

How Social Movement Evolved to Civil War: An Analysis Based on the Middle East Turmoil

Since 2011, a new wave of social movements has spread across the Middle East. The social movements in different countries have lots of similar structural factors, but they brought out different political consequences. For example, Tunisian and Egyptian upheaval led to peaceful regime change, but the social movements in Libya and Syria incurred civil wars. This paper argues that the consequences of social movements are determined by two factors: whether it has achieved cross-class mobilization and the attitude of army towards protesters. With cross-class mobilization, social movements can survive and develop; if army encounters internal division, civil war may occur. In other words, there are two conditions for social movements evolved into civil wars: the formation of cross-class mobilization, and the army support protesters or remain neutral. This approach can help researchers predict whether social movements will evolve to civil war.