对当前中东局势演变的若干思考

当前中东局势动荡其实是中东国家迫切需要的政治和社会转型的一部分,对地区国家的政治改革和社会进步具有明显的推动作用,但阿拉伯世界作为整体被再次分化和削弱。旧的秩序被打破后,阿拉伯世界的传统意识形态面临新的时代挑战。西方试图将中东变革引入所谓民主化轨道,未来中东地区有可能形成多元政治架构,但其过程漫长,且中东各国政治进程的发展难以摆脱本地区历史、宗教、文化和社会现实的影响。我们应将美国西方的介入置于当前国际体系加速转型,世界政治、经济权势向非西方国家转移的大背景下加以观察。中东动荡短期内会分散美国关注重点,但不会改变其从中东总体收缩的态势,更不会动摇其战略东移步伐。

Speculations about the Evolution of the Current Situation in the Middle East

The current turmoil in the Middle East is urgently needed as part of the political and social transformation, and it will substantially make promote on political reform and social progress, but the Arab world as a while will be re-divided and re-weakened. Given the collapse of old order, the traditional idealogy will face new challengers. The West attempts to bring the changes in the Middle East to the so-called track of democratization, and a framework of political pluralism is likely to formulate in the f...