大变局下欧洲战略取向及其影响

欧洲视野下的大变局,一是西方所谓普世价值体系遭遇困境,西方霸权正趋于终结;二是欧洲在世界地缘政治中可能无可挽回地趋于边缘化;三是非西方世界特别是中国经济和社会发展的成功带来冲击。在大变局之下,欧洲虽未制定明确的因应战略,但内外政策已经呈现出较为明显的方向性特点。第一是防卫性上升,"保护"成为其内外政策主基调;第二是尝试走"第三条道路,"体现出欧洲在全球的独立地位和影响力,作为角逐的一方而不是作为角逐场存在;第三是战略收缩,固本靖边。欧洲是具全球性影响力的主要力量之一,其战略取向的变化必然会产生较大影响,包括对欧洲自身发展的影响,对大国互动的影响,中欧关系的未来将更为复杂。

European Strategy and Its Impacts

From the European perspective,global great changes include the predicament that the so-called Western universal value system faces and the near end of the Western hegemony,the irreversible marginalization of Europe,and non-Western countries’economic and social developmental success.Under the circumstances of major changes,Europe has not developed a clear strategy to respond;however,obvious trends have taken shape in its domestic and foreign policies.First,the defensiveness has increased,and"protection"has become the main tone of its domestic and foreign policies.Second,it is trying to take the third way,showing European independence and global influence,and trying to be a player instead of a playground.Third,it will pursue strategic contraction while strengthen its foundation and ensure the safety of its border.Europe is one of the major powers with global influence,whose changes in the strategic approaches will inevitably have big impacts,both on the development of its own and on the interaction of major powers.China-EU relations will also be more complex.