缅甸：军人执政的20年（1988～2008）的政治发展及趋势

自从1988年9月缅甸军人接管政权，建立“国家治安建设委员会”（1997年11月15日改名为“缅甸联邦和平与发展委员会”，以下简称“和发委”）以来，已有20年了。在当今世界，军人统治一个国家居然持续了长达20年的时间，可谓绝无仅有（如果从1962年3月奈温军人集团政变夺权算起，军人在缅甸的统治更是长达46年）。

Myanmar: Political Development in Recent 20 Years(1988～2008)Since the Military Took over Power and Its Tendency

This paper analyzes the reasons why the military government of Myanmar has been in powers in a long term since it took into power in september, 1988 from the development level of social-economy, the characteristics of history and ethnic relations, the political structure and the foreign relations, reviewing the important events and its effect in Myanmar＇s political development in the recent 20 years, discussng the main issues and the potantial crisis as well as the 6 important factors that influence Myanmar＇s political development. The paper considers that the Referendum for the Draft New Constitution in May of this year will be passed and it will decide the political trend of Myanmar in the future several years.