东南亚国家产出波动的同周期性研究——基于1980～2008年数据的分析

本文应用H—P滤波法对东南亚国家的经济波动进行周期性分析后发现，东南亚8个国家在1980～2008年间的经济波动基本上具有同周期性波动的特征。从东南亚国家总体上看，东盟一体化进程的提高有利于降低东南亚国家总体的经济波动幅度、提高东南亚国家总体的低谷值，推动东南亚国家的经济发展。

Research on the Output of Same Cyclical Fluctuations in Southeast Asian Countries: Based on the data of 1980～2008

In this paper,through applying the methodology of HP filter to analyze the cyclical economic fluctuations of Southeast Asian countries,it found that the fluctuations of eight southeast Asian countries has basically the characteristics of the same cycle between 1980 and 2008. To the whole of Southeast Asian countries,the process of ASEAN integration was conducive to the improvement of the overall economy in Southeast Asian countries,reduced its volatility,improved the low value of the overall Southeast Asian...