中国—东盟贸易模型的演进和变迁——从亚洲金融危机到东亚一体化加深（1997～2004年）

过去10年间，东亚经历灾难性的亚洲金融危机和之后的蓬勃发展的区域经济一体化加深两个完全不同的阶段，对东亚地区的经济发展以及世界经济格局都产生了迥异而深远的影响。亚洲金融危机导致东南亚国家和除中国外的东亚国家货币大幅贬值，股票价格和资产价格下跌，许多国家多年的经济繁荣毁于一旦，不仅破坏了东亚乃至全球的金融体系，而且对世界经济增长以及贸易流量产生了严重的消极影响。

Evolution and Change of China-ASEAN Business Mode-From Asian Financial Crisis to the Further of East Asian Integration(1997～2004)

East Asian economies have experienced two different phases： disastrous Asian Crisis and aftermath accelerated regional integration over last ten years. This paper conducts a case study of China-ASEAN trade patterns over the two phases by adopting gravity model, and finds that the structures of China-ASEAN trade patterns have significantly changed over the two phases. Moreover, this paper develops a new hypothesis （Linder-vs-HO hypothesis）that the HO effect and the Linder effect simultaneously co-function and play different roles in economies at different developmental stages： HO effect dominates in low income economies but with a diminishing return to trade flows, while Linder effect dominates in rich economies. Finally, this paper concludes that growths of trade flows are heavily dependent on and is increasingly becoming more sensitive to economic growth of both trading partners among East Asian economies.