2020年的东盟及其与中国关系

由10个中小国家组成的东盟，无论从其国土面积，人口数量还是从经济、贸易规模来看，作为一个整体已相当于一个重要的大国，成为亚太地区的一极。在经济全球化和区域一体化浪潮不断高涨的今天，东盟迎来了成立40年。回眸东盟成立的历史，它的确取得了举世瞩目的辉煌成就，在国际上的地位和作用日益显现。在关注它的昨天和今天的同时，这里笔者也试图对今后10多年的东盟作一前瞻，尤其是它的一体化进程、经济发展及其与中国关系的前景。

The Prospect of ASEAN and Its Relation with China in 2020

Up to 2020, the economy of ASEAN will keep a rather fast growth and still koop the feature that the north enjoys faster growing speed than the south. Particularly Vietnam will catch up with the average development level of ASEAN and then ASEAN in general will reach the level of medium developed region in the world. In the meantime, the integration of ASEAN is also a tendency. Comparing to EU, the integration process of ASEAN takes a longer time, mainly because df the imbalanced economy while the difference between political systems and culture diversification should also not be ignored. The experience that EU had worked up from an economic integration and then unified the political and security cooperation of the whole community have been a reference for ASEAN to set up a cooperation mode with compliance to the multiple politics and cultural diversification of the region. After a tortuous development, the good-neighborly and friendly relations between China and ASEAN have seen great improvement. Both sides should cherish this hard-won situation, continue to strengthen the systematic construction of political, diplomatic and security cooperation, consolidate and reinforce economic and trade relations, enhance cultural and local exchange, properly handle existing problems such as South China Sea issue and continue to upgrade bilateral friendly and cooperation level.