标志性事件对中国与东盟国家进出口影响实证分析

该文基于国别贸易数据,采集和整理了东盟10国以及东盟外8国的年度对中国贸易数据,利用改进的倍差法模型对以上数据进行分析,评估标志性事件对东盟与中国贸易规模影响的净效应。通过实证分析发现,中国与东盟政治与经济合作的标志性事件对于中国与东盟各国贸易有极其显著的正的影响效应,而中国与东盟个别国家领土、政治纠纷和国际灾害的影响效应不显著。国际性经济危机对东盟和中国之间的贸易总量也有着比较显著的影响。并依据以上实证结果提出有关发展中国—东盟贸易的建议。

Empirical Analysis on Symbolic Event Affects Import and Export between China and ASEAN

This article is based on the trade data of different countries, we obtained and organized trade data including the both import and export statistics of 10 ASEAN countries and 8 non-ASEAN countries which are related to the trade quantity. By using model of Difference-in-Difference, we analyse policy＇s net effect on trade quantity, and also measure policy influence to the trade quantity which has particular characters. In conclusion, the new international cooperation between China and ASEAN has a positive effect to trade quantity as well as the world economic situation. However, the Nature disaster and political dispute have not significant effect to the trade quantity. Therefore, we provide our political suggestions to the trade between China and ASEAN by the experimental results that just mentioned above.