| Abstract: | China is applying a five-track strategy towards Taiwan. This strategy gives China more confidence that time is on its side in regard to the Taiwan issue, and decreases the likelihood of the use of force. For China, the decision not to use force is based on this strategy as well as on its unswerving commitment to economic modernisation at home. China's military modernisation is aimed less at occupying Taiwan than at deterring its creeping independence. For the near future, putting aside extreme situations such as a large-scale economic disaster or a domination of policymaking by internal politics rather than rational strategic thinking, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan. |
