试析日本安倍政府在美伊间的调停外交

自2018年5月美国退出"伊核协议"后,美伊关系持续紧张,导致中东局势动荡不定。对此,日本安倍政府基于保障日本的能源安全和经济利益、提高日本国际声誉与推动国内修宪进程等多重战略考量,决定在美伊间开展调停外交。美伊两国对调停者的需求、伊朗对日本的信任以及欧洲国家调停者身份的削弱,也为安倍政府实施调停外交提供了可行条件。安倍政府调停外交的实施路径主要包括日伊首脑互访、日伊高层会谈、日美密切沟通以及游说中东国家等,但其成效受到日本自身局限性、美伊矛盾复杂性、调停策略表面性、调停进程不确定性等因素制约,难以促使美伊关系得到实质性缓和。

An Initial Analysis of Mediation Diplomacy by the Abe Administration between the US and Iran

Since US’ withdrawal from the "Iranian Nuclear Agreement" in May of 2018, relations between the US and Iran have been tense, thus leading to great regional instability in the Middle East. Based on strategic considerations of insuring Japan’s energy security and economic interests, raising Japan’s international prestige, and promoting constitution amendment at home, the Abe administration has decided to engage in mediating diplomacy between the US and Iran. The need for a mediator by the US and Iran between them, Iran’s trust in Japan, and the weakened role of European states as a mediator have provided the Abe administration with feasible conditions to conduct mediating diplomacy. The approach taken by the Abe administration for its mediating diplomacy mainly includes: mutual visits by the heads of state of Japan and Iran, high-level dialogs, and close communication with the US as well as lobbying the Middle East countries. However, the Abe administration’s efforts failed to promote a substantial improvement of the US-Iran relations due to the restrictions of such factors as Japan’s own limitations, complexity of contradictions between the US and Iran, superficiality of the mediation tactics, and uncertainty of the mediation process.