Political Change in America and Implications for the US-Japan Alliance

This article examines the domestic political dynamics behind US president Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to trade and foreign policy, to understand better how long this strain of American economic nationalism might last and what it means for Japan’s national security strategy. The political base for Trump’s trade protectionism and apparent indifference to allies has roots stretching back into American history, but this movement has strengthened in recent years due to a combination of growing economic inequality in the United States, demographic changes, and the impact of fast-paced technology development and economic globalization. These political trends are likely to persist beyond Trump’s presidency, although some potential negative effects on Japan and the US-Japan alliance in the medium-to-longer term can be mitigated by Japan’s proactive foreign policy and other steps. The alliance still offers a great deal of value to both countries—now and into the future—but Japan should consider a slightly larger global leadership role in concert with others, even as the allies work to enhance their continued cooperation on shared interests.     

美日同盟:面向21世纪的全面调整

九一一事件以来,美日对双边同盟进行了新一轮调整,美日同盟的调整和演变受一系列因素影响,并对日本的安全政策走向、东亚地区安全环境产生重大而深远的影响。     

A US-Japan Foreign Policy Alliance for Myanmar

Rarely before has such a large and potentially consequential country tried to reform itself politically and economically as Myanmar is now attempting, following an extended period of extreme isolation and amid unprecedented international and digital connectedness that exists today. This is a challenge not only for Myanmar, but also for the United States and Japan as they try to facilitate this transformation in productive ways, in a coordinated fashion, and consistent with their own foreign policy and commercial interests. A pertinent question, therefore, is whether or not Washington and Tokyo are inclined and prepared to address Myanmar's transition as an alliance issue, and if they are, then what is an efficient and effective way to go about this task.

The answer is mixed, for despite their pursuit of many common interests, the policy priorities and policy making environments in the United States and Japan differ significantly. In simple terms, the United States has a “democracy first” agenda in Myanmar that sometimes limits its options, while Japan takes a more flexible approach in order to maximize engagement and business opportunity. Still, President Obama and Prime Minister Abe provided a mandate in April 2014 to strengthen alliance cooperation in Southeast Asia (and in Myanmar in particular), and the two countries have complementary strengths and local networks that can be leveraged more effectively for the benefit of all.

Despite US concerns about stalled political liberalization and human rights abuses in Myanmar, Washington should take a longer-term horizon for evaluating reforms and consider enhancing its leverage with Myanmar through more effective policy coordination with Japan (which is a major player in the country), rather than the maintenance or reapplication of sanctions.     

日美同盟的历史演变及其对亚太安全的影响

日美同盟在二战后大致经历了"威权同盟"、"互助同盟"和"伙伴同盟"三个阶段,这一同盟之所以能够长期存在并不断发展,究其原因,是双方在亚太地区甚至全球范围内有不断交迭和发展变化的共同战略利益.同盟中的美日两国既相互倚重,又彼此制约,同盟性质也随国际形势的变化不断发生着嬗变.21世纪,随着美国亚太战略的不断调整和日本的日益强大,日美同盟将对亚太格局的形成与塑造产生重要影响.     

美国单边主义笼罩下西方同盟体系的嬗变--九一一后日美同盟与德美同盟的比较研究

九一一后,在美国国内及其主要盟友的支持下,美国支配和塑造世界政治的能力骤然上升到近年来从未有的高度。但随着时间的推移及美国霸权主义甚嚣尘上,西方同盟体系已经和正在发生着重大变化,美国支配世界的能力也大不如前。本文选取美日、美德两个同盟为案例进行比较研究,以期探讨这一变化的深层原因。文章认为,不同的文化背景、历史经历、国际环境和国内政治因素,最终导致日、德两国对西方同盟体系采取不同的政策。随着世界政治经济的发展,西方同盟体系必将发生进一步分化,美国的霸权也决非没有界限。     

The Rise and Fall of the Jewish/Left Alliance: An Historical and Political Analysis

The disproportionate historical involvement of Jews in the political Left is well known. However, far less attention has been paid to the political and ideological factors which attracted Jews to the Left. This article attributes Jewish support for the Left to both class and ethnic considerations. Poverty and anti-Semitism influenced Jews to join a movement which promised to end capitalist and racial oppression. However, following the Holocaust and the creation of the State of Israel, many Jews lost their faith in universalisticsolutions, and switched their commitment from international to nationalist force. Nevertheless, lingering links between Jews and the Left continue to exist to this day.     

The Eye of the beholder: Background notes on the US-Japan military relationship

Abstract

In the last half century, the pivotal steps in American-Japanese relations have been paced off at roughly ten-year intervals. At the Washington Conference of 1921-1922, American and other Western pressure brought about cancellation of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and forced Japan to rely upon uncertain international guarantees for its security. The Manchurian Incident of 1931 dispelled the professed hopes of the twenties, and a full decade later Pearl Harbor marked the total bankruptcy of Japan's relationship with the West. At the San Francisco peace conference in 1951, America led forty-eight other nations in restoring Japan's sovereignty, and five hours after the signing of the peace treaty the U.S. summoned forth shades of the old Anglo-Japanese Alliance by signing its own bilateral military pact with Japan. Nine years later, nationalistic resentment against this security arrangement of 1951 erupted in Japan, forcing cancellation of President Eisenhower's proposed visit. Now another decade has passed, and 1970 is clearly destined to mark yet another watershed in the American-Japanese relationship.     

Political Parties,Australia and the U.S. Alliance: 1976-2016

ABSTRACT

What causes variation in the foreign policies of U.S. allies regarding their desired U.S. military role in their region and their troop commitments to U.S. military interventions? This paper addresses this question through documenting and explaining the sources of variation in Australia’s foreign policies regarding these issues over four decades. Treating the two major political parties in Australia and their respective leaders who self-select into them as endogenous, the paper argues that Australian foreign policy, whilst always supportive of the U.S. alliance, has systematically varied. This variation has correlated with the political party in power while the late Cold War and post-Cold War balances of power remained constant. While the Labor party has only been willing to send combat troops to large U.S. military interventions when the latter have a supporting United Nations Security Council Resolution, the conservative Liberal party has been willing to military intervene without this multilateral support. The Labor party, unlike the Liberal party, has also frequently proposed the formation and consolidation of multilateral regional institutions. These preferences render the U.S. to have been necessary for the Labor Party but sufficient for the Liberal party. Future Sino-U.S. armed conflict would provide a harder test of these hypotheses.     

Charting a Future Course for US-Japan Relations

This article first examines specific recent issues facing the two countries, namely the Senkaku Islands fishing boat incident and the relocation of the Futenma Marine air base in Ginowan city, Okinawa, and then proceeds to make some observations on the larger issue of the future of the alliance.     

利益集团与日本政治体制中的"三角同盟"--兼论日本结构改革难以推进的原因

本文主要考察了日本政治体制的特征,以及这一体制对日本结构性改革的影响.当前日本政治体制最突出的特征就是官僚、政治家(政党)和利益集团之间形成的"三角同盟"关系,这种关系实质上就是一种利益交换关系,而"族议员"则是这种"三角同盟"关系的缩影.这种政治体制使得日本的结构性改革难以推进,因此日本的结构性改革必须以政治体制的改革为前提,而政治体制改革的核心就是打破这种"三角同盟"关系.     

政治身份认同与缅甸果敢同盟军的瓦解

生存达二十年之久的缅甸非政府武装组织果敢同盟军于2009年8月被缅甸中央政府解除武装而宣告瓦解。本文通过对果敢同盟军、佤邦联合军和掸邦东同盟军这三个背景相似的缅甸非政府武装组织的比较研究,提出导致果敢同盟军瓦解的内部深层次的支撑性原因是该组织政治身份认同的缺失的观点。通过这一案例,本文试图提出政治身份认同是非政府武装组织在主权国家内生存的必要条件这一一般性假说。     

美韩同盟再定义:一种联盟理论的视角

冷战结束以来的美韩关系出现了诸多松散和变动的迹象,然而传统的联盟理论似乎难以提供合理的解释,制度主义和建构主义的理论也只是提供了某些有益的分析视角。本文试图借助于“利益平衡”与“安全平衡”的双平衡作为逻辑分析的基点,从而构建一种“威权式联盟”(authoritative alliance)的理论,并力图以此对美韩同盟当前的演变形态与重新定义的基本方向做出初步的理论分析。     

Unity and Alliance: The Financial Future of Greater China

Greater China has been separated and divided for over a century. The reunification of Hong Kong and Macao on the eve of the New Millennium has paved the way for Greater China to reunify as a single economy with a single internationalized currency. History shows that financial and monetary collaborations are essential to the future of Greater China in the global arena. We argue that collaboration might begin with a common board in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei for Greater China enterprises to list and trade in one synchronized market. The common board would also facilitate public and private bonds in support of the infrastructural development and globalization of Greater China enterprises. Due to its established financial market, system and culture, Hong Kong would be the undisputed home of the Greater China Enterprises Board. Financial collaboration would advocate monetary alliance when the Chinese renminbi is fully convertible. When the time comes, the offshore renminbi based in Hong Kong would become the counterpart of the Eurodollar in London. The Asianyuan, as it might be called, would be the truly internationalized and globalized renminbi.     

Okinawa and the Nago heliport problem in the US-Japan relationship

The impact of the decision about when and if the United States Marine Corp Air Station will be relocated in Okinawa reverberates beyond the prefectural shores. It has the potential to upset the G-8 Summit, scheduled to be held in Nago City in July 2000, as well as to affect the strategic relationship between the US and Japan. In this article, Robert Eldridge, Post-doctoral Fellow at the Suntory Foundation, Osaka, reviews the history of this complicated problem. He argues that the US and Japan must continue to make progress addressing Okinawan requests and concerns. Ameliorating Okinawa” s burden, while at the same time more actively seeking public understanding and suppor t of the US-Japan security relationship and Japan's role in that relationship, as well as increasing Japan's ability to cooperate in times of emergency, is in the interest of both countries.     

Soviet Union and the Third World: The Economic Dimension

This paper surveys some of the outstanding issues and changes in the economic dimension of Soviet involvement in the non-communist Third World over the last 30 years. It attempts to identify and integrate salient features of current knowledge about Soviet economic policy toward the less developed countries. After a survey of the evolution of Soviet arms transfers and economic aid and trade relations, the paper concludes with some reflections on the effectiveness of Soviet policy and prospects for future change. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 420.     

Policy Entrepreneurs: The Third Dimension in American Foreign-policy Culture

"The Great oil boom was an event so profoundly and broadly influential that it provides the key to understanding the surge of Islam." — Daniel Pipes, 1983.
"Yet it is naive to attribute the Islamic revival mainly to oil." — John Esposito, 1985.
"Yes, I did publish a book in 1983, In the Path of God , suggesting that the resurgence of Islam in the 1970s resulted from the boom in oil wealth. At this point I don't know what causes fundamentalism‥[It] may be too complicated for us to figure out." — Daniel Pipes, 1994.
"In the long run, many academics were proved right." — David D. Newsom, 1995-96.     

The Atlantic Alliance in a Global System

The war in Iraq led to a confrontation between emerging American and European models for global governance. In imagining the future, each has tended to project its own positive experience in the Cold War years. Europeans imagine a multilateral concert, with confederal institutions encouraging mutual appeasement. Americans imagine a benevolent unipolar hegemony. Experience in the 1990s reinforced America's unipolar perspectives. Trends in the new century make Europe's model seem better adapted to an increasingly plural world system. The conclusion speculates on the European model's relevance to Asia. Much will depend on whether China and Japan can replicate the Franco-German reconciliation. China may have more success “containing” the US within a larger Eurasian or even UN context, including, in some fashion, Europe and the US. Conceivably the Western powers may more easily balance their own relations in a Eurasian rather than transatlantic geopolitical framework.