左翼溃败右翼独大——2010年匈牙利议会大选初析

2010年4月11日、25日,匈牙利举行了东欧剧变后第六次议会大选的两轮投票。青民盟和基民党组成的竞选联盟在第一轮选举中即大获全胜,得票率为539／,前执政党社会党惨败,得票率仅为19％,极右政党“为了更好的匈牙利运动（简称尤比克党）得票率为17％,     

民主与政党

如果民主的本质属性所包括的价值不只是简单的多数选择,那么党内民主可能会推进还是阻碍其他那些价值呢?吉迪恩·拉汉特、瑞文·哈让和理查德·卡茨三位学者在对以色列的选举进行实证研究的基础上发现,广泛的参与、竞争性和代表性这三种民主的价值不可能同时被最大化。相反,这些价值之间也许是非线性的关系,甚至是负相关的关系。具体而言,内部最民主的政党会产生最不具有代表性的候选人名单,而且所经历的只是中等程度的竞争。     

美国人口族裔构成的变化与2012年大选——从2010年人口普查数据说起

入入21世纪后,美国人口结构发生了巨大的变化,不再是白人一统天下,也不是黑白分明,而是呈现出多样化趋势,2010年人口的普查数据显示出美国正处在人口发展的历史转折点,而这种变化也将影响到即将到来的2012年大选。以下从三个方面分析人口结构变化对大选产生的影响。     

台湾地区“第三势力”的发展与前景——从2022年“九合一”选举到2024年“大选”布局

台湾地区30余年的所谓“民主化”实践,形成了两党轮替的制度环境和两党主导的政治结构,并在历次选举中多次上演。在这样的政治语境中,“第三势力”发展空间受限逐渐成为一种普遍认知乃至思维定式。近年来岛内中间选民显著成长,国、民两大党实力对比失衡,“第三势力”自主性增强,为“第三势力”发挥影响力、谋求新突破带来新机遇。2022年“九合一”选举中,以台湾民众党为代表的新兴“第三势力”夺得新竹市,并在台北市长选举中表现不俗,显示在一定选民结构、选举环境和选战策略的耦合下,“第三势力”具备打破岛内政治环境结构性限制的空间和实力;尤其是与传统“第三势力”的式微相比,实现地方执政且赢得14席县市议员更凸显了民众党的一枝独秀。当然,选举结果与民众党预期目标有一定差距,主要原因在于政党成立时间尚短、基层经营不足、选举经验缺乏等,并不足以掩盖其发展势头。2024年“大选”和“立委”选举,是岛内政治格局重新洗牌和检验“第三势力”实力的重要节点,以民众党为代表的“第三势力”能否争取中间选民凝聚基本盘,提高民意支持度向选票的转化率,以及根据国民两大党的选举布局和竞逐态势制定正确的选战策略,将决定其未来一段时间的角色...     

着眼未来,让中非关系不断发展——专访厄立特里亚人民民主与正义阵线党中央政治部长耶迈尼

<正>记者:中厄建交23年来,两国关系发展顺利,友好交往不断。两国在政治、经贸、人文领域的交流合作持续拓展。您如何评价中厄两国关系?对中厄两国关系的未来有何期待?耶迈尼:当前,中厄两国多从双边关系角度,以厄立特里亚作为单独一个国家的视角来看待和发展两国关系。展望未来,中厄应充分发挥厄立特里亚的潜力,从更宽广的地区视角来看待双边关系。虽然厄立特里亚人口少、市场规     

德国民主社会主义党大选失利及未来走向

在德国2002年大选中,民主社会主义党被挤出联邦议会,其失利的重要原因是社会民主党政策上向左摆动抢了它的地盘和话题.在党代会上,民社党"正统派"把"改革派"清除出党的领导层,同时把未来的走向定为抗议性"反对党".但由于该党面临分裂的危险,也未真正找到符合时代和国情要求的发展路线,前途实际上相当渺茫.西欧左翼党和共产党大都有相同的处境,面临着类似问题.     

Local Government Reforms in Latvia, 1990–2003: Transition to a Democratic Society

This case study of Latvian local governments focuses on the qualitative aspects of reform legislation passed and implemented between 1990 and 2003 as the best available measures of changes made. Special attention is given to historical influences and inherited Soviet practices, the uncertain and conflicting value systems of reformers, and a gradual shift to concerns about the services provided. Power relationships are examined, together with the funding of local governments and minority relations. It is anticipated that in 2005 Latvia will adopt new elected regional development boards to work with the EU and other external institutions, leading to more democratic and cooperative modes of government. There is evidence that values of achievement and trust held by the younger generation are increasingly compatible with new needs and reform processes.     

Democratic Consolidation in Timor-Leste: Achievements,Problems and Prospects

Timor-Leste has had three rounds of major elections, all of which have been widely regarded as meeting international criteria for being free and fair. There has also been one change of government on the basis of these elections. On these grounds, some observers have suggested that Timor-Leste has met the benchmark for having consolidated its democracy. Timor-Leste can be said to meet the criteria for an expanded minimalist definition of democracy, holding regular, free and fair elections within an open competitive political environment, with relatively little violence and intimidation and general freedom of expression. This political process has, as defined by the literature, also consolidated. However, Timor-Leste continues to face future economic challenges. The literature indicates that states with high levels of poverty, unemployment and with food shortages are more prone to political instability. Given that Timor-Leste's political party system relies heavily on charismatic individuals and, apart from Fretilin, has poor party structures, loss of current political leaders will add a further destabilising effect. Expected economic problems are likely to manifest around the same time that the current generation of political leaders are no longer active. The question will be, in this increasingly challenging environment, whether Timor-Leste can sustain its democracy.     

Indispensable,yet Invisible: Drinking water management as a local political issue in Swedish municipalities

ABSTRACT

Local policy-makers’ incentives to address an issue is conditioned by how they perceive public attention. Our study focuses on drinking water management at the municipal level in Sweden. Provisioning and management of drinking water is a responsibility of the local governments. Interviews with local politicians and public administrators in seven municipalities reveal that local policy-makers think that citizens view provisioning of drinking water as a taken for granted service, and also lack knowledge of and interest in drinking water issues. Public attention is further seen as a double-edged sword since engagement in water issues often is a result of problems with water provision. The findings are discussed from a theoretical perspective of the role of agenda-setting in public policy. It is argued that the view of policy-makers of citizens as unengaged negatively affects the incentives to bring drinking water to a prominent place on the local policy agenda.     

Modernism's Legacy: Dialogue,Objectivity, and Justice in Mark Bevir's Democratic Governance

This article looks at Mark Bevir's ideas on the changing nature of the modern state, as expressed in his book, ‘Democratic Governance’. In the book, the author argues that recent developments in the theory and practice of politics have their intellectual roots in wider trends in the academic study of society and politics. In particular, he argues, the rise in what he and others have called ‘the new governance’ – that is, the shift in Britain and elsewhere away from centralised policy making and implementation by state institutions toward policy networks in which the state is merely one actor among many – has emerged as a direct consequence of the rise of ahistorical, universalist social science methodologies.     

Psychological Barriers to a Peaceful Resolution: Longitudinal Evidence from the Middle East and Northern Ireland

Does individual-level exposure to political violence prompt conciliatory attitudes? Does the answer vary by phase of conflict? The study uses longitudinal primary datasets to test the hypothesis that conflict-related experiences impact conciliation. Data were collected from Israeli Jews, Palestinians, and Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland. Across both contexts, and among both parties to each conflict, psychological distress and threat perceptions had a polarizing effect on conciliatory preferences. The study highlights that experiences of political violence are potentially a crucial source of psychological distress, and consequently, a continuing barrier to peace. This has implications in peacemaking, implying that alongside removing the real threat of violence, peacemakers must also work toward the social and political inclusion of those most affected by previous violence.