The Revenue Impact of Repeated Tax Amnesties

Proponents argue that tax amnesties raise revenue both in the short and long run, by bringing former nonfilers back into the tax system. Opponents contend that amnesties produce little short‐run revenue and weaken incentives for long‐run tax compliance. However, over the last 21 years, 27 states offered tax amnesties for a second or third time. While previous research has estimated the impact of specific tax amnesties, none have estimated how the impact changes when offered repeatedly. We find that these additional tax amnesties generate less short‐run revenue than predecessors and tend to magnify revenue losses associated with disincentives for long‐run tax compliance.     

The Impact of Tax Revenue from Capital Gains Realizations on State Income Tax Revenue and Budget Conditions

We explore the effect of the rapid increase in capital gains realizations on state income tax revenue during the 1990s and 2000s, and the effect that this had on state fiscal decisions regarding the use of these revenue. We find wide variation in the growth of capital gains realizations across states and that the growth in capital gains had a significant effect on state income tax revenue for many states. We find that states used a sizable portion of the additional revenue from capital gains to fund reserves in the year the revenue was generated, and that capital gains revenue lead to some reductions in taxes but not to increases in expenditures. The evidence suggests that states were conservative in their use of capital gains related revenues.     

City-State Ideological Incongruence and Municipal Preemption

A growing concern among municipal officials across the United States is that their policymaking capacity is under attack by state legislatures who are increasingly likely to preempt those municipalities. However, determining the extent to which municipalities are preempted is challenging. We overcome this by surveying a large sample of municipal officials from across the United States. We find that officials from municipalities that are more ideologically distant from their state overall are more likely to report being preempted by their state government. Moreover, this pattern is driven by more liberal municipalities in both Republican and Democratic states reporting higher rates of preemption. Additionally, municipalities under unified state governments are more likely to report preemption, especially those under unified Republican control. These findings have important implications for the quality of representation in our federalist system and indicate that preemption is not just an issue between Republican states and liberal urban cities.     

The Impact of Federal Preemption of State Antipredatory Lending Laws on the Foreclosure Crisis

State antipredatory lending laws (APLs) are designed to protect borrowers against predatory lending that can increase the risk of default and deplete the home equity held by borrowers. Federal regulators instituted preemption that limited the scope and reach of state antipredatory lending regulations for certain lenders. Based on the variation in state laws and the variation in the regulatory environment among lenders, this paper identifies the effects of federal preemption of state APLs on the quality of mortgages originated by preempted lenders. The results provide evidence of a relatively higher increase in default risk among loans exempted from strong state antipredatory laws. These results are most robust among refinance mortgages with adjustable interest rates—a large and highly dynamic market in the period of analysis. The findings provide initial evidence that preemption of state mortgage lending regulations may result in an increase in mortgage default risk, thus limiting consumer protection in the residential mortgage market.     

Federal Preemption and State Regulation of Transportation and Telecommunications

Transportation and telecommunications are two of the most importantinfrastructural industries in the American economy. As theseindustries are so vital and because they exhibit characteristicsthat have frequently rendered them quasi-monopolistic, theirgrowth has been accompanied by state and federal regulation.We document how the imposition of regulation has led to continualconflicts over the extent to which federal regulation shouldtake precedence over state regulation. We illustrate how thejustifications for federal preemption have been applied notonly to the regulation, but also to the recent deregulation,of railroads, trucking, and telecommunications. We contend thatpolitical factors, such as congressional support, precedent-settingcourt rulings, and, most important, political pressure fromaffected interest groups that is related to the revenues stillgenerated within states by these industries, ultimately determinethe form of preemption that emerges from the Congress.     

The Fiscal Consequences of Changing Federal and State Revenue Policies: The Case of Small Oregon Cities

This article examines the fiscal consequences for twelve, smallOregon cities of recent changes in federal and state intergovernmentalrevenue policies. Many small local governments have experienceddouble revenue reverses in recent years—reductions inown-source revenues because of economic decline as well as decreasesin intergovernmental revenues, especially federal aid. The twelvesmall cities are compared with all 241 cities in Oregon andthe 136 Oregon cities in the 1,000 to 49,999 population range.Using aggregate and interview data, a major finding is thatalthough stabilization and/or decline in federal-state revenuesharing and entitlement program funds have accentuated difficultlocal revenue situations, economic decline has been the moreimportant contributor to the fiscal stress of the twelve smallmunicipalities. Most of the twelve cities had limited fiscalcapacity—as indicated by low assessed property valuations—makingit difficult to produce sufficient revenue to meet basic publicservice needs. These cities were also unable to get citizenapproval of increases in property taxes.     

经济开放对地方财政收入规模及结构的影响实证分析

使用中国1999—2007年度省级面板数据,实证分析了经济开放对地方财政收入规模和内部相对结构变化的作用。研究表明:贸易开放度的提高显著增加了地方个人所得税、行为税、财产税和非税收入,整体上也引起地方财政总收入的增加;并使地方财政收入中个人所得税、财产税和非税收入比重上升,城建税收入比重下降。投资开放的提升显著增加了地方营业税、个人所得税、行为税、非税及预算外收入,同时减少了地方增值税和企业所得税收入,总体上对地方财政收入有负效应;并提高了地方财政收入中营业税、个人所得税、行为税、财产税、非税收入及预算外收入的比重。由于外资和外贸对经济及税基的作用差异、现行分税制、地方各项财政收入自身特征、地方政府基于多元目标为促进外资投资呈现出的策略行为等,使经济开放对地方各项财政收入规模及其相对结构的影响具有复杂和非一致性。     

The Rehnquist Court and Federal Preemption: In Search of a Theory

In the 1980s, the U. S. Supreme Court was expected to becomemore solicitous of "states' rights" and to reconsider doctrinesof federal preemption of state and local laws. Those expectationswere built on the Court's ruling in National League of Citiesv. Usery and reinforced by the Reagan administration's rhetoricand Court appointments. The record ofthe Rehnquist Court, however,demonstrates that it has backed away from vigorously enforcingthe Tenth Amendment and has erected only minor constitutionalbarriers, as in New York v. United States, to the Congress'power over the states. Moreover, the Court has not retreatedfrom finding implied statutory preemptions or from imposingits own dormant-commerce clause power on the states. The articleconcludes by considering a number of explanations for the Court'srecord and rulings on federal preemption.     

Constitutional Tax and Expenditure Limitation in Colorado: The Impact on Municipal Governments

Tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) have become a pervasive influence on local government fiscal affairs. Explanations for the spread of TELs suggest that voters thought local government was growing more than needed. Thus, TELs were intended to constrain growth and reduce the size of local governments. This article's purpose was to determine the impact of two separate kinds of TELs, one a property tax measure, and the other a comprehensive revenue and expenditure limit, upon the growth of municipal governments in Colorado. Using a panel data set on municipal budgets (1975–1996), the article demonstrates three major points: 1) the effectiveness of a TEL in achieving reductions in local government revenue and spending growth depends upon the nature of the TEL; 2) the comprehensive TEL did effectively constrain growth and reduce local government reliance on the property tax, despite the local options for exemption; and 3) TELs do not have uniform impacts among governments of different population.     

Federal Cutbacks and the Fiscal Condition of the States

Given the drive to balance the federal budget, cutbacks andchanges in federal aid are likely to place added burdens onstate governments. This article examines whether state governmentsare fiscally up to task. A review of the recent and currentfiscal position of the states suggests that current state fiscalstrength may be temporary, and is unevenly distributed amongthe states. In addition, many factors will differentially influencestate responses to the changing federal environment. Statesmay not be as fiscally ready, as Washington assumes, to handleincreased long-term responsibilities.     

The Impact of the Tax Revolt Era State Fiscal Caps: A Research Update

Fiscal caps, the most common form of fiscal limit adopted during the tax revolt era, are again on the agendas of state government. In this article, we evaluate the claims made by cap supporters and opponents by examining the impacts of caps adopted during the tax revolt. Updating Lowery and Cox's (1990) analysis of the impact of state fiscal caps through 1991 using a comparative state, interrupted time-series design, we find some evidence—albeit very weak—that fiscal caps may have modestly reduced the size of government and no evidence that they have been evaded through budget end-runs.     

论税收的公平与效率原则及税制设计

税收是市场经济下政府组织财政收入的主要手段,一国税制设计应在满足财政收入前提下,尽量满足税收的公平与效率原则。税制设计如何在这二者之间取舍,经常引起经济学家和政策制定者的争议。发达国家关于最优所得税制的理论应该对我们有所借鉴。     

Fiscal Planning, Budgeting, and Rebudgeting Using Revenue Semaphores

Revenue forecasts play an important role in the state government budget and policy process. These forecasts are generally reported to executive and legislative leaders as point estimates, with no acknowledgment of their corresponding risk and uncertainty. The revenue semaphores proposed in this article outline procedures by which revenue uncertainty directly influences the planning process. The goal is not to make forecasts more accurate, but to make discussions of budget and revenue alternatives more comprehensive. Explicitly incorporating risk and uncertainty measures into the budgeting process increases the degree of real-time budgeting and reduces some adverse effects of budget revisions after the fiscal year begins. The discussion occurs in the context of budget control, management, and policy making.     

Municipal Government Revenue Forecasting: Issues of Method and Data

In this article the authors investigate the impact of the choice of time series method, the length of the data stream used to estimate the model, and the frequency of the data on forecasting accuracy for own source, non-tax general fund revenue for six Connecticut municipalities. The authors find that exponential smoothing models are generally the most accurate. They also conclude that local government officials should rely on bimonthly rather than monthly or quarterly data and retain, in a readily usable format, more than three years of data.