Revenue Diversification: Fiscal Illusion or Flexible Financial Management

This study examines the trends in revenue diversification in approximately 240 suburban municipalities in the Chicago metropolitan region between 1988 and 1997. It then tests a model of revenue diversification's impact on tax effort using data from 1993 to 1997, and separated by home rule and non–home rule municipalities. Trends show that suburbs with higher increases in diversification tend to be home rule, younger, less residential, experiencing more growth, less reliant on property taxes, and more reliant on sales taxes. Model estimates show that communities with more revenue diversification have lower tax effort when controlling for other determinants of tax effort, and this effect is stronger in non–home rule municipalities.     

The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting

This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.     

Diversifying Municipal Government Revenue Structures: Fiscal Illusion or Instability?

This paper examines (1) whether revenue diversification leads to greater instability as represented by revenue volatility, and (2) whether revenue complexity produces fiscal illusion as represented by increased public expenditures. These questions are answered by analyzing panel data on municipal governments between 1970 and 2002. The findings suggest that fiscal illusion does not occur among municipal governments, but revenue diversification does influence levels of volatility. However, the way in which municipalities diversify is important for achieving revenue stability. When diversification is considered in isolation, both tax and nontax diversification reduce revenue volatility. When diversification and complexity are considered simultaneously, the statistical effect of nontax diversification disappears. But, when a tax revenue structure is both diversified and complex, the likely outcome is greater revenue volatility rather than stability.     

Surplus Expenditures: A Case Study of Colorado

In this study the concept of surplus expenditures is introduced, and a theory of surplus expenditures is explored. The study examines the disposition of surplus revenues that emerged from the imposition of a binding tax and spending limit in Colorado. The study concludes that the accumulation of surplus revenue requires a major overhaul of budgetary reporting and decision making to reflect the impact of binding tax and spending limits on the budgetary process. The reporting recommendations are designed to make the budget more transparent and provide both taxpayers and legislators the information they need to make more rational decisions. The policy recommendations explore options for a more efficient and equitable disposition of surplus revenue.     

Budgetary constraints and municipal revenue forecasting

Conclusion The objective of this research has been to determine whether key budget participants see forecasting as making significant contributions to the budgetary process. The issue is important for at least two reasons. Budgetary tools will be used to the degree budget players perceive them as providing net budgettary benefits. Moreover, the continuing trend toward technological sophistication gives governments opportunities, red herrings or not, to incorporate the technology into the budget process. The issue is also very timely; with the demise of packaged budget reforms but not the values of budget reforms, there may be new opportunities for improving budgeting on a less grandiose, more piecemeal basis, such as using forecasts to analyze budgetary options. The findings here provide some insight into two questions concerning governmental forecasting. First, why do governments use complex methods? In support of previous research, since cities most dependent on intergovernmental aid tend to use complex forecasting, such methods may indeed be seen as a way to help cope with fiscal stress. Also, reflecting the ambiguity of current research, since cities tend to use relatively simple techniques regardless of the revenue source being forecasted, the source is at best a partial determinant of complexity. The most important predictor of complexity, however, was budget format; cities that emphasize reform methods, especially planning, tend to use the most complex forecast methods. The forecasting process was not as important as expected.Second, so what? Does forecasting influence budgetary choices? The evidence from the second part of the study suggest that it can, but within definable limits. Budget directors are more likely than councils to value outyear estimates, but both actors are much less likely to value long-term estimates. The survey results also indicate that revenue forecasts are not as useful for making political decisions as for making management decisions: the forecast is usually used as an internal document, is only sometimes intended to affect council decisions, and is not usually included in the budget. In short, the forecast may be most useful for making managerial decisions since that is what most cities want out of it. It also tends to be more useful if the budget format is less traditional. Finally, the findings indicate that forecasting may be more useful to management to the degree the council finds it politically useful. This is extremely important since it suggests that as powerful as technology may be, budgetary tools that do not meet political needs will be managerially confined.Clearly, more research is needed in this area. Does forecasting actually shape long-range plans? In the long run, will the forecasting effort change the ways cities budget? Can the availability of forecasting information strengthen one actor relative to another? These are important questions that need answering to clarify the impact of forecasting and other technologies on the budget process.     

State Policies Affecting Cities and Counties in 1991: Shifting Federalism

States experienced considerable fiscal distress in 1991 as the recession led to widespread revenue shortfalls. In this environment, discretionary spending did not fare well. This article discusses five major policy areas: (1) state financial aid; (2) major changes in the "sorting out" of responsibilities between the state and local governments; (3) revenue diversification; (4) changes in limitations imposed on local taxes; and (5) new mandates handed down to cities and counties.     

Managerial Necessity and the Art of Creating Surpluses: The Budget-Execution Process in West Virginia Cities

Budget execution traditionally has been defined as a straightforward process of implementing the budget as approved. Research into the process has been limited, particularly with regard to local government budgets. This article examines the rebudgeting process using a case study of 15 West Virginia cities. Rebudgeting displayed a consistent pattern for the various budget categories—personnel, contracts, commodities, capital, and contributions—closely resembling the "increase-then-decrease" pattern seen in the overall budget. Empirical data on budgetary adjustments and structured interviews with city finance officials helped to describe budget changes and explain probable causes and effects of behavior during budget execution for these smaller cities. Budget changes were found to be the result of managerial necessity and the exercise of discretion to generate and distribute surpluses.     

Home rule and municipal revenue stability: New evidence from Texas

Scholars have long debated whether home rule powers help improve municipal financial well-being; however, a consensus has yet to be reached. This study advances the home rule literature by causally estimating the impact of home rule in Texas on municipal revenue stability. To accomplish this, we employed a difference-in-differences estimator coupled with event-study specifications on a 40-year-long panel data set. This approach revealed strong empirical evidence that cities adopting a home rule charter had a significant reduction in the probability of experiencing revenue decline. This finding remained robust with multiple measures of revenue change, an alternative sample, and different model specifications. Moreover, we found that home rule cities’ revenue stability was likely to come from their increase in property taxes.     

The Fiscal Consequences of Changing Federal and State Revenue Policies: The Case of Small Oregon Cities

This article examines the fiscal consequences for twelve, smallOregon cities of recent changes in federal and state intergovernmentalrevenue policies. Many small local governments have experienceddouble revenue reverses in recent years—reductions inown-source revenues because of economic decline as well as decreasesin intergovernmental revenues, especially federal aid. The twelvesmall cities are compared with all 241 cities in Oregon andthe 136 Oregon cities in the 1,000 to 49,999 population range.Using aggregate and interview data, a major finding is thatalthough stabilization and/or decline in federal-state revenuesharing and entitlement program funds have accentuated difficultlocal revenue situations, economic decline has been the moreimportant contributor to the fiscal stress of the twelve smallmunicipalities. Most of the twelve cities had limited fiscalcapacity—as indicated by low assessed property valuations—makingit difficult to produce sufficient revenue to meet basic publicservice needs. These cities were also unable to get citizenapproval of increases in property taxes.     

Fiscal Crisis and Community Development: The Great Recession,Support Networks,and Community Development Corporation Capacity

Community development corporations (CDC) are a cornerstone of neighborhood improvement in legacy cities. Yet they face challenges that threaten their financial sustainability, challenges that grew exponentially with the Great Recession. This article examines the impact of the Great Recession on the revenue and survival of CDC in Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; and Detroit, Michigan. An analysis of financial data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics from 2004 to 2011 highlights issues of industry contraction, revenue concentration and loss, and CDC survival. Interviews and examination of multiple secondary sources of information on CDC activity and support networks in each city further our understanding of the financial results. We find that the CDC industry in all three cities was severely impacted by the Great Recession and that the CDC support networks in each city had a significant intervening effect on the ability of CDC to adapt to the fiscal and service pressures created by the recession. We discuss the implications of the shared trends and the city-specific dynamics for the role of CDC in neighborhood improvement in legacy cities.     

Budgeting for Contracting in Local Government

While the amount of contracting out seems to be leveling off, the number of larger, long‐term contracts seems to be increasing. Such contracts are generally not well described in local budgets. Recent efforts in some cities to shift to more outcome‐oriented performance budgeting should push toward more clarity in reporting on major contracts in the budget. This article examines how a handful of major cities handle contracts in their budgets—in some cities contracts are omitted from the budget or all merged into one budget line—and makes some suggestions for improvements.     

Fiscal Decentralization,Flat Administrative Structure,and Local Government Size: Evidence and Lessons from China

This paper examines the effects of fiscal decentralization and flat administrative structure on local budget size and program outlays. We test three related theoretical hypotheses in China's adoption of province‐over‐county scheme of financial administration. We provide evidence that both decentralization of expenditure and decentralization of revenue increase the size of local budgets; that the impact of the former far outweighs that of the latter with local budgets on a rising trajectory; and that discretion grants localities more means to increase their budget. These results show that as China's reform deepens the proportion of local outlay on administration declines because of more local discretion from eliminating the prefecture bypass between the province and counties. But neither decentralization nor increased local discretion has allocated more local resources for education, and both contribute to increasing outlay on economic development. The paper formulates tentative policy recommendations that carry potential application for other countries. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Fiscal Impact of Federal and State Aid to Large U.S. Cities: An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Response

This article examines four types of aid programs to thirty-nine large U.S. cities federal revenue sharing, federal categorical aid, state general aid, and state categorical aid. The central finding is that there is significant variation in the magnitude of property tax reduction resulting from different types of state general aid. Property tax credits and exemptions are less effective approaches in reducing local property taxes than are state lump-sum aid or city use of piggybacked taxes Categorical state and federal aid mostly fund additional city spending and have small but important stimulative effects on the revenue side These results suggest that differences in the design of aid programs have important implications for their fiscal impact and their effectiveness in reducing property taxes.     

Dueling Revenue Caps and Municipal Bond Yields: The Case of Houston,Texas

Two competing revenue cap proposals, one from a citizen's group and the other proposed by the mayor, were on the November 2004, election ballot of the City of Houston, Texas. Both propositions passed, yet the citizen's group had to sue to have their initiative enforced. This study examines the effect on Houston bond yields of the series of events (from June 2004 through March 2006) surrounding these dueling revenue cap propositions. The empirical findings suggest that the budget‐related events can have a significant effect on yields demanded by investors in the secondary market for outstanding uninsured tax‐exempt general obligation debt.     

Government Hedging: Motivation, Implementation, and Evaluation

This article examines option hedging strategies that enable politicians to manage budgetary risk. While the theoretical risk management arguments are general, the simulation analysis considers the example of oil revenue risk in Texas, and estimates the costs and benefits of an option hedging program. To evaluate government option hedging strategies, the study develops a hedge quotient measure that compares the future value of realized revenues plus net option proceeds to the future value of expected revenue. The average hedge quotient is found to be lower for the option hedging strategy than for the unhedged position, illustrating the cost of an option hedging program. Nevertheless, option hedging effectively manages extreme downside risk and stops large budget deficits from occurring. Politicians may also like option hedging because it preserves the potential of realizing budget surpluses.     

The Impact of Capital Spending on Municipal Operating Budgets

What is the impact of capital spending for buildings, equipment, and other facilities on future operating expenditures of municipal governments? Because capital spending decisions are made independent of operating decisions in many larger municipalities, managers make long-term capital commitments without fully understanding the repercussions for operations. This implies the need for research that examines more closely the linkages between these budget cycles. This article develops a theory of the relationship between capital and operating expenditures, then uses data from the fortyeight largest U.S. cities to estimate both the magnitude of capital's impact and the time it takes for operating budgets to adjust. The study finds that five of six commonly provided municipal services were affected to varying degrees by past years' capital expenditures. Especially notable is the finding that the operating budgets of labor-intensive services, such as police and fire protection, are most sensitive to capital spending. For public managers, the findings point to the need for closer coordination between the capital and operating budget cycles, especially in those cases where capital outlays have clear, unambiguous positive implications for future operations.     

Potential Effects of Federal Policy Devolution on Local Housing Expenditures

As 1994 came to a close, the future of the U.S. Department ofHousing and Urban Development (HUD) and the continued role ofthe federal government in low-income housing assistance washighly uncertain. The agency was targeted for elimination bycongressional leaders, its budget was the object of recissionattempts, and agency officials proposed a radical reinventionto alter housing programs and the delivery system for federalhousing assistance. Given the likelihood of either more budgetcuts (resulting in greater reliance on nonfederal sources offunds) or the devolution of policy responsibility through blockgrants, there is heightened concern for how local governmentsallocate housing funds. This article examines housing expenditurestrategies of large U.S. cities. The analysis describes factorsrelated to a greater use of nonfederal housing revenues by cities,and examines the impact of funding source on program and beneficiarytargeting. The data suggest that reduced federal spending ora shift to block grants is likely to result in more housingbenefits directed to moderate-income households and to homeownersand homebuyers.     

Budgeting during a Recession Phase of the Business Cycle: The Georgia Experience

This article describes the impact of the nation-wide recession on Georgia revenue and spending decisions in the 2002 and 2003 fiscal years. The state's strong economy and conservative revenue estimating practices historically provided a hedge against revenue shortfalls during a recession phase of the business cycle. However, when state revenue collections for FY 2002 were 5 percent less than collections for the prior fiscal year, several gap-closing measures became necessary, including state agency spending reductions and substitution of bond proceeds for tax revenues. These revenue and expenditure gap-closing measures were intended to enable the governor to achieve his policy initiatives while maintaining a balanced budget. The state's Rainy Day Fund remained full and was held in reserve for budget balancing in FY 2004, if necessary. Budget balancing during the current recession has been made possible by the state's practice of not overcommitting to program increases and tax cuts during the expansion phase of the business cycle, and by effectively framing the issue of fiscal restraint.     

Fiscal Planning, Budgeting, and Rebudgeting Using Revenue Semaphores

Revenue forecasts play an important role in the state government budget and policy process. These forecasts are generally reported to executive and legislative leaders as point estimates, with no acknowledgment of their corresponding risk and uncertainty. The revenue semaphores proposed in this article outline procedures by which revenue uncertainty directly influences the planning process. The goal is not to make forecasts more accurate, but to make discussions of budget and revenue alternatives more comprehensive. Explicitly incorporating risk and uncertainty measures into the budgeting process increases the degree of real-time budgeting and reduces some adverse effects of budget revisions after the fiscal year begins. The discussion occurs in the context of budget control, management, and policy making.     

Monitoring Single-Source Revenue Funds throughout the Budgeting Process

Unexpected revenue shortfalls that occur during budget execution create serious problems for public agencies and programs. This is especially true for agencies and programs that rely upon a single source of revenue. This article implements a revenue monitoring process that combines ideas from statistical process control and exploratory data analysis into a spreadsheet environment. The methodology builds on principles used to monitor manufacturing processes. This simple application helps public managers detect revenue surpluses and deficits early enough in the budget execution process to take corrective action. The methodology also adapts to the data problems and avoids many of the pitfalls that arise when using "real world" budget data. An example of the benefits of this methodology is offered using an example of a state agency funded by a single revenue source.