当代国际冲突中的宗教因素

宗教文化的对立与冲突是冷战后国际和地区冲突的焦点之一 ,具体表现为宗教因素引发民族冲突与地区冲突 ,以及宗教极端主义与国际恐怖主义的结合破坏世界和平。但是 ,宗教冲突决非纯粹的宗教战争 ,宗教冲突的真正根源在于政治与经济之间的矛盾运动 ,在于各种政治集团和社会力量围绕利益问题所做的争夺。注重宗教因素与国际冲突的关联 ,客观分析其间的互动规律 ,并由此制定相应的文化策略 ,应该成为国际问题研究和宗教问题研究的共识     

冷战后国际政治中的文化冲突

冷战后 ,国际政治中的文化冲突呈现许多新特点 ,无论是在表现形式和方式、产生途径、影响与作用还是在解决方式上都出现了新的变化。这不仅与文化自身的原因相关 ,而且也受冷战后国际政治新情况的影响 ,而国家利益内涵和结构的变化是其变动的根本原因。     

The Future of Chemical Weapons: Implications from the Syrian Civil War

Abstract

With chemical weapons (CW) use in Syria raising questions about the health of the CW norm, this article analyzes whether the Syrian case will lead to further proliferation and use of chemical weapons by states. We examine the use of chemical weapons at Ghouta in 2013 and on the Hama Plains in 2014 and find that: first, chemical weapons have demonstrated limited military utility in Syria, either tactically or as a tool of civilian victimization; second, the costs of use have been repeatedly demonstrated by the international reaction to their use; and third, the use of sarin—a nerve agent—has attracted a stronger international response than the use of chlorine, a less lethal agent. Consequently, we conclude that the Syrian case is unlikely to lead to significant proliferation and use of chemical weapons; any that does occur is most likely to involve states already outside the CW norm.     

History, War, and the Future

This article aims to delineate several issues raised by an historically based approach to understanding the present and the future. Beginning with a discussion of the profound impact that drastic changes have had on the international environment, the article then outlines what history suggests about human nature's influence on the course of future events; the future of war; the nature of governance and the United States. This essay does not attempt to provide answers, but rather suggests how policy makers, strategists, and military leaders might think through the complex political and cultural questions they need to be asking in the making of strategy. This is the essential first step for Americans. If they fail to ask the right questions, most answers will prove irrelevant to the challenges of the future.     

The Future of War and American Military Strategy

The outcome of ongoing debates over the future of American military strategy will play a critical role in shaping the foreign and military policies of the United States over the next decade. Traditionalists worry about the shift towards emphasizing counterinsurgency (COIN) operations and irregular warfare, believing that the use of force is often ineffective in COIN situations and the American military should concentrate on planning for conventional war. In contrast, COIN advocates argue that the United States must focus its efforts on preparing for the wars it is most likely to fight, irregular wars. However, both schools of thought rely on assumptions about the future security environment that may reveal another path forward. First, although it seems intuitive to view irregular warfare as the dominant future concern, it is exceedingly difficult to predict accurately the future security environment, as the last 20 years have clearly shown. Second, and perhaps most importantly, the character of emergent threats will depend on how the United States focuses its resources. Paradoxically, no matter what it emphasizes, the military threats the United States is or will be most capable of defeating are the ones it is least likely to face, since potential adversaries will be deterred and seek other ways of confrontation. However, with some smart and careful investments, including the recognition that not all parts of the military have to be optimized for the same task, the United States military can both lock in its conventional dominance and continue to improve its ability to succeed in the irregular wars most likely to dominate the landscape in the short to medium term.     

Forms of Civil War Violence and Their Consequences for Future Public Health

Previous research concerning the relationship between conflict and public health finds that countries emerging from war face greater challenges in ensuring the well-being of their populations in comparison with states that have enjoyed political stability. This study seeks to extend this insight by considering how different civil war conflict strategies influence post-conflict public health. Drawing a distinction between deaths attributable to battle and those fatalities resulting from genocide/politicide, we find that the magnitude of genocide/politicide proves the more effective and consistent predictor of future rates of disability and death in the aftermath of civil war. The implications of this research are twofold. First, it lends support to an emerging literature suggesting that important distinctions exist between the forms of violence occurring during civil war. Second, of particular interest to policymakers, it identifies post-civil war states that have experienced the highest rates of genocide/politicide as the countries most in need of assistance in the aftermath of conflict.     

伊拉克战争对当代国际关系的冲击与挑战

伊拉克战争标志着美国对其对外战略进行冷战结束以来最广泛而深刻的调整 ,美国正在成为现有国际秩序的挑战者 ,它企图按照单极霸权的需要和能力 ,来建立新的世界战略格局。这将给各国的外交政策以及当代国际关系造成强大的冲击。     

The Great Powers and Regional Conflicts: Eastern Europe and the Balkans from the Post–Napoleonic Era to the Post–Cold War Era

The objective of this article is to provide an analytical framework for addressing the sources of great power regional involvement and its effects on regional conflicts. The thesis of the article is that variations in the degree of intensity of conflicts and the likelihood of successful conflict resolution in different regions are affected by the character of great power involvement in these regions. Our argument is that although great power involvement or noninvolvement cannot cause or terminate regional conflicts, it can either intensify existing local conflicts or mitigate them. We will propose causal linkages between balances of great power capabilities and interests, types of great power involvement in regional conflicts, and patterns of regional conflicts. The study will distinguish among four types of great power involvement in regional conflicts: competition, cooperation, dominance, and disengagement. The empirical section will examine the application of these propositions in seven historical illustrations, representing the four patterns of great power involvement in regional conflicts. All the illustrations will deal with one conflict-ridden region-Eastern Europe and the Balkans, in successive historical periods from the post-Napoleonic era to the post-Cold War era. Because of the variety of patterns of great power involvement in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this region is uniquely suited to examine the propositions derived from the theoretical framework. Drawing on both the theoretical deductions and the historical illustrations should make it possible in the last section to discuss briefly the implications of the proposed framework for regional conflict management or mitigation in the Balkans in the post-Cold War era.     

Democratization,Instability, and War: Israel's 2006 Conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah

In 2006 Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip and conducted a war in Lebanon following attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. Due to the elections that had recently taken place in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, these events seem to support the argument that democratizing nations are particularly war-prone. Yet the dynamics this perspective identifies as dangerous were largely absent. To address this puzzle, this paper offers three arguments. First, democratization enhanced the power of groups openly hostile to Israel, increasing Israel's perception of threat. Second, democratization was threatening because it occurred within highly divided societies governed by weak state institutions that allowed radical groups to attain political power. Finally, Israel's response to the increased threat posed by these groups was ultimately counterproductive because it further eroded the capacity of the Palestinian and Lebanese governments, heightened polarization within both societies, and therefore exacerbated the same conditions that made democratization threatening to begin with.     

试论伊拉克战争后联合国的作用和前途

美英对伊拉克战争虽已结束,但这场战争影响深远。此次战争纯系美国单边主义行动,反映到联合国内,是一场罕见的单边主义与多边主义激烈而尖锐的较量。这种较量会此起彼伏地长期进行下去。联合国需要改革,但不可取代,其作用涵盖政治、维和、经济、军控、环保、文化等多种层面。西方有人鼓吹用“志愿联盟”来取代之,遭到联合国大多数会员国的坚决反对。美国不愿也不敢脱离联合国。要从历史长河及发展观点,全面审视联合国的作用和影响。     

Globalization,Systems Integration,and the Future of Great Power War

Contemporary economic globalization differs from past increases in global commerce, especially because modern foreign direct investment and systems integration techniques allow factories in different countries to specialize in the design and production of parts rather than complete products. Stephen Brooks has argued, based on both liberal and realist logics, that this new form of globalization might bring a “commercial peace,” at least among the great powers. But economic globalization did not simply appear by itself. Firms and governments made conscious decisions through a process of systems integration and strategic planning that led to a wide variety of international economic relationships. That diversity of economic connections combines with the variety of strategic situations in the international environment—variations in geography, national intentions, policy history, etc.—to suggest a range of possible constraints on countries' offensive capability and on the prospects for economic gains from conquest. As has always been the case, conquest in the future will sometimes prove valuable and other times will not. Globalization does not imply the dawn of an era of commercial peace.     

War, Economic Development, and Political Development in the Contemporary International System

The European state-building experience has led many scholars to argue that war forces states to increase their fiscal-administrative capacity, or what we might refer to as political development, in order to compete in the international system. War also requires states to generate wealth to support such competition, which should lead to progressively increased levels of economic development. Yet, in contemporary empirical studies, war is often studied as a dependent variable, with economic and political development modeled as affecting its origination. This reading of theory and empirical work suggests that war, economic development, and political development constitute an endogenous system. In this paper, we develop expectations about how these three processes interact and test them using a three-stage least squares regression model. The results show significant simultaneous relationships between the three processes. We conclude that war, economic development, and political development are mutually constitutive processes in the contemporary international system.     

中国应关注非洲的冲突——塞拉利昂驻华大使阿尔胡辛·迪恩9月20日在“中国与非洲:挑战21世纪”国际研讨会上的发言摘要

感谢中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所举办这次研讨会,并给我发言的机会.首先,我不得不遗憾地说,非洲大陆上的冲突和争斗尚无永恒有效的解决办法.诸位恐怕都明白,这些冲突恰恰是……     

Critical Pedagogy for the Present Moment: Learning from the Avant-Garde to Teach Globalization from Experiences

Closer to us in what it integrates and in its consequences, global politics still gets conceptualized as if it belonged to a realm of its own, disembedded and abstracted beyond quotidian experiences of power. Still folded in a supernatural world that cannot be of their making, as far from experience as their cold war predecessors were, international studies (IS) students are as alienated and find it as hard to work with critical imagination.
To teach students to be more than mere technicians of whatever new world order may be born of present circumstances, we have to unmake the political separation that still exists between the study and teaching of global politics and everyday life in the world economy.
This article presents a record of a decade-long teaching experiment conducted in the department of political science at Laval University in Québec City. Borrowing techniques and inspiration from the "historical avant-garde," I have worked to reinvent my pedagogical practice to create "situations" in which students can be full, unalienated subjects in the learning process.     

俄格冲突对国际关系的影响探析

俄格冲突是苏联解体后俄罗斯军队第一次在境外作战。学界对此进行了各种分析评论,总体上担心这场冲突会导致"新冷战"开场,怀疑国际格局发生了重大变化。从实际情况看,俄罗斯是在格鲁吉亚突然袭击受维和部队保护的南奥塞梯后被迫采取的军事行动,仅仅是为了阻止北约继续东扩的步伐。这场冲突既没有改变"美强俄弱"的总体国际环境,甚至也没有改变"美攻俄守"的欧亚地区格局。俄格冲突是对冷战结束以来美国在世界各地推行强权政治的"反动",引发人们对冷战后国际关系准则一再遭到破坏的深刻反思。     

The Future from Multiple Perspectives

In 2014,we witnessed the polarization of global economic growtti,a proliferation in the number of regional hotspots that had widespread repercussions,incredibly complex and zealous big power relations and some eye-catching diplomatic achievements from China.This author attempts to give a forecast of global trends in 2015 based on the developments in the previous year.In 2014,countries showed their strengths and weaknesses in the politico-economic domain,while the global economy gave a poor performance.In the developed world,the U.S.registered a strong economic recovery,whereas Europe and Japan struggled with sluggish growth.Of the