Export concentration and export performance in developing countries, 1954–67

The relationship between export concentration and various aspects of the export performance of 31 developing nations during the period 1954–67 is considered in this paper.¹ Estimates of the magnitude, instability and time‐trend of both the geographic concentration of exports and export earnings are utilised to estimate the direction and strength of association between these aspects of export concentration, instability and growth.² The analysis reveals diverse patterns of geographic export concentration among the countries, but offers little support for conventional views of an important direct relationship between export concentration and the instability or growth rate of export earnings.³     

Education,Employment and Earnings of Secondary School and University Leavers in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracer Study

This study uses a tracer survey of secondary school completers in Tanzania to analyse the impact of educational qualifications on labour market earnings. We show that the rates of return to the highest educational qualifications for wage employees are not negligible and, at the margin, provide an investment incentive. However, we find little evidence of human capital effects in the earnings determination process for the self-employment sector. Introducing controls for father's educational background and a set of school fixed effects designed to proxy for school quality and potential labour market network effects reduces the estimated rates of return to educational qualifications. A comparison of our results with the available evidence from other countries in the region suggest that, despite an extremely small secondary and university education system, the private rates of return to education in the Tanzanian wage employment sector are comparatively low.     

Changes in human capital and earnings inequality: Recent evidence from Brazil 1

Abstract

This paper estimates changes in the rates of return to human capital across the earnings distribution using data from over a 10-year period for Brazil. It uses these estimates to simulate the separate impacts of changes in returns to skills and changes in the supply of skills on earnings inequality. Evidence points strongly to growing inequality in rates of return to education in Brazil. This finding suggests that recent macroeconomic and trade reforms have been of most benefit to the skilled rather than the unskilled. Supporting evidence points to an improved competitiveness in the labour market, with workers increasingly rewarded for productivity. However, although increases in returns to education are more pronounced at the top of the earnings distribution, this did not in practice led to increased inequality. This is because levels of education and other labour market-rewarded endowments have increased and offset the rate of return effect. Appropriate education policy is therefore an essential partner for macroeconomic and trade reform if a developing economy is to avoid worsening income inequality.     

Potentials for federation of East African educational programmes

Educational planning, in the modern sense of the term, goes back in Thailand no further than 1962, when the Second Economic and Social Development Plan (1962/66) was launched. The Second Plan included a plan for the educational system as did the Third Plan (1967/71) which is now drawing to a close. These two educational plans were based on a variety of methods, including those of making long‐term forecasts of manpower requirements. Between 1963 and 1967, five different groups prepared manpower forecasts for Thailand, some of which looked no further than 1970, while others projected manpower requirements up to 1968. In this paper we will try to assess the quality of these forecasts and, so far as it is possible, to cmmpare prediction with outcome.

The paper consists of four parts. We begin with a brief review of background data in order to highlight the problems of manpower forecasting in an economy such as that of Thailand. The second section is devoted to a detailed discussion of the first and most ambitious of the five forecasts that have been made in Thailand. This is followed by brief evaluations of the remaining four forecasts. In the fast section, we will consider the influence that these forecasts actually exerted on educational planning in Thailand.     

Minority entrepreneurs and firm performance in sub‐Saharan Africa

This study focuses on the role of entrepreneurs in the private sector in sub‐Saharan Africa. Using data from the Regional Program on Enterprise Development (RPED) and controlling for various factors, our analysis compares growth rates of indigenously owned African firms with firms owned by entrepreneurs of Asian or European descent, in Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania. We find that after controlling for firm size and age, various entrepreneurial characteristics, and sector and country differences, minority (or non‐indigenous) entrepreneur firms start out larger and grow significantly faster than indigenously‐owned African firms. Our results are consistent with theories that argue that informational and financial networks created by minority entrepreneurs provide access to credit, information, and technology for members of these networks. We also find that within indigenously‐owned African firms, entrepreneurs with secondary and/or university education realise a higher rate of growth; access to education presumably enables indigenous African entrepreneurs to develop managerial skills that serve as a substitute for the informational and financial networks created by minority entrepreneurs.     

Structural adjustment with a human face — a comment on Adelman and Taylor

Development Strategy in Thailand. By Robert J. Muscat. The Pall Mall Press Ltd. 1966. Pp. xvi, 310. 105/‐.

Planning Without Facts: Lessons in Resource Allocation from Nigeria's Development. By Wolfgang F. Stolper. Harvard University Press &; Oxford University Press: London. 1967. Pp. xx, 321. Appendix. Index 64/‐.

Pan‐Africanism and East African Integration. By Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Oxford University Press, London and Nairobi. 1966. Pp. x, 307. Index. 45/‐.

International Aid to Thailand. The New Colonialism? By Ronald C. Nairn. Yale University Press: New Haven and London. 1966. Pp. 223. Index. 48/‐.     

The Virtual Value Chain and E-Government Partnership: Non-Monetary Agreements in the IRS E-File Program

Abstract

Electronic government (e-government) models generally espouse the principle of partnership with the private sector. What is not always clear is what is meant by partnership, though, and how public organizations should organize and manage such relationships to support e-government initiatives. The paper relies on a conceptual framework of the virtual value chain to understand how a new form of collaboration emerged in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) e-file program in 1999 and what dimensions helped to make it a success. As part of a larger, multi-nation study of public–private partnerships in e-government, this paper examines IRS e-file program, one of the largest, longest-standing (dating back to 1986), and most successful US e-government programs with tens of millions of users each year.

The IRS e-file program experienced dramatic changes in its long-standing partnership with the tax preparation and related software development industries in 1999 and 2000. It is possible, using the concept of the virtual value chain, to understand how the IRS rethought its relationship with its private-sector partners. A combination of conditions in the market place, in US society, within the IRS, and among the private-sector partners helped to make this new model of collaboration quite successful. The paper concludes by examining how the dimensions of partnership in the IRS e-file case and the concept of the virtual value chain might enable other public organizations to reconceptualize their e-government partnership arrangements with the private sector using a new model of collaboration.     

Structural reform,institutions and earnings: Evidence from the formal and informal sectors in urban Peru

Reforms undertaken in Peru in the early 1990s might have resulted in a slight reduction of the informal sector. Costs associated with becoming and staying informal, and benefits of becoming formal might have increased. This, when a legalistic definition of informality is used. Earnings differentials between formal and informal self‐employed workers are negligible although they persist between formal and informal salaried workers. Skilled workers are more likely to be found in the formal sector and informal wage earners tend to be younger and less skilled. The earnings generating process for both the formal and the informal self‐employed workers is similar.     

Sex differences in earnings: An analysis of Malaysian wage data

The conventional human capital earnings function is applied to a rich set of Malaysian wage data in an attempt to determine the origins of sex differences in average earnings. Several findings are of interest, the first being that the relationships estimated from the earnings function are similar to those typically reported for non‐LDCs. Second, less than a third of the average monthly wage difference between the sexes of about 34 per cent appears to be the consequence of either females having lower (measured) productivity than males, or females receiving lower rates of return to human capital than males. The major part of the earnings difference is apparently a consequence of employment distributions: females are much more likely to be in the low‐paying occupations.     

Political violence in Ecuador and the AVC

Abstract

Since its return in 1979 Ecuador's civilian constitutional government has been marred by continuous political violence. The newest and most dangerous challenge to regime stability has surfaced over the past few years in the domestic terrorist organization, the ¡Alfaro Vive, Carajo! (AVC). Beginning as a small, student‐led subversive group in 1983, the AVC now appears in coordination with the neighboring Colombian M‐19 and Peruvian Sendero Luminoso guerrillas and in cooperation with regional narcotraficantes. Determined government efforts, supported by the United States, have failed decisively to uproot and destroy the AVC.     

THE PRACTICE OF CONTRACTING IN PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: TRANSACTION COSTS AND RELATIONAL CONTRACTING IN THE IRISH SCHOOLS SECTOR

This paper explores the practice of contracting in public private partnerships (PPP). Focusing on the first Irish PPP to provide secondary schools, it draws on perspectives from transaction cost economics and socio‐legal theory. It finds that the ex ante contractual setting was undermined by pushing forward with the PPP before conducting an adequate level of project appraisal. It explores the experiences of key stakeholders in the ex post contracting stage and concludes that the conduct of contracting practice was not characterized by the shift to relational contracting expected under PPP. Whereas this approach to contractual governance did not hinder the development of broadly trusting relations between the client and contractor, this was not manifest in terms of relations between the contractor and schools. A significant degree of conflict was evident in some schools‐contractor relations, something which can be attributed to sources of transaction costs, including incomplete information, bounded rationality and uncertainty.     

An application of the stone model to the Turkish financial accounts

The study presented in this paper consists of the application of two models of financial accounting to Turkish data. Detailed financial accounts are available for 1950–63 [Yaser, 1967], accounts for 1964–67 are incomplete [Aysan, 1967 and State Institute of Statistics, 1968], and none exist for 1968–70. Even if detailed accounts could be prepared somewhat more rapidly they would still not be up to date; a considerable lag in preparation of the basic data, e.g. company balance sheets, etc., exists in Turkey, as in most underdeveloped countries. For this reason, methods of estimating financial accounts with the use of models requiring limited and speedily available current data have been explored.

The aims of the analysis are estimation and prediction. Explanation of the changes in the financial variables has not been attempted here. The bivariate least‐squares regressions run to estimate linear time trends in all the financial proportions used in the models are not explanatory. Durbin‐Watson tests suggest that other factors were significant over the period.¹ This lends support to the conclusion that even for a financial system such as Turkey's which might on a priori grounds be thought particularly well suited to analysis by the Stone model, the non‐substitutability hypothesis embodied in it must be rejected.

The reasons for believing that the Turkish financial structure might lend itself well to analysis by the Stone model are outlined below. They appear so convincing that the negative results of the model's application are surprising. Indeed, they raise a number of interesting questions about financial structures of underdeveloped countries which are beyond the scope of this paper.     

Book reviews

Clay G. Westcott (ed.), Key Governance Issues in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Viet Nam (Manila: Asian Development Bank, 2001), 71 pages.

Michael Jacobsen and Ole Bruun (eds.), Human Rights and Asian Values: Contesting National Identities and Cultural Representations in Asia (Surrey, Great Britain: Curzon Press, 2000), 330 pages.

Robert H. Taylor (ed.), Burma: Political Economy Under Military Rules (London: Hurst & Company, 2001).

Satu Kahkonen and Anthony Lanyi (eds.), Institutions, Incentives and Economic Reforms in India (New Delhi: Sage Publications, 2000).

Kyung‐Ae Park and Dalchoong Kim (eds.), Korean Security Dynamics and Transition (New York: Palgrave, 2001), 209 pages.     

Actions by Political Officials Have Weakened the Federal Government Workplace: Downsizing Has Cut Lower Level Workers the Most and Replacing Federal Employees with Private Corporations Costs Much More,Creating the Need for Immediate Reform

Abstract

The authors of this paper are four practitioners each of whom has many years of experience working in the Federal government and also has pursued doctoral studies in public or business administration. Three ideas developed in this paper are that: (1) the Federal civil service has been changed from being a model workplace to a much less desirable one; (2) although downsizing has been touted as an efficiency and economy measure, lower level employees experienced the most cuts and (3) the current practice of replacing Federal employees with private corporations costs much more. Over the past two decades private sector workplaces in the United States, and now the Federal government workplace, have experienced so much change that previous theories, concepts, models, and expectations no longer hold. Just as private industry workplaces have been changed by downsizing, reorganizations, mergers, elimination of middle management, and outsourcing, so, too, has the Federal government workplace been fundamentally altered. Reducing the number of government workers, replacing Federal employees with private firms, increasing the number of officials with political agendas, and using harsh personnel management practices have transfigured the Federal workplace. Examples of factors that have contributed to a changed workplace include: the Civil Service Reform Act which replaced the Civil Service Commission with the Office of Personnel Management; importing private sector approaches into the government, e.g., the Grace Commission; replacing the Civil Service Retirement System with the Federal Employees Retirement System; pressure to downsize and privatize; and many elements of the National Performance Review and Government Performance and Results Act. Now that the metamorphosis away from the traditional Civil Service borne of the Pendleton Act is nearly complete (although the new paradigm is not entirely clear), questions about the effects of a changed government workplace are being raised. Some people believe the metamorphosis is from a caterpillar to a butterfly, while others think the opposite. Whether the changed Federal government is a thing of beauty or a distasteful organism will be determined over time by observations and assessments of the effects of the change. These effects will be both internal to the government workplace, itself, and external to it, involving the products, services, outputs, and outcomes it produces. This paper begins by describing some of the politically mandated changes that have altered the very foundation of the Federal government workplace over the past 20 years and made it a much less desirable place to work. Next, some of the effects of two politically mandated changes are examined: (1) downsizing or reducing the number of Americans who can work for their government and (2) contracting out or replacing government workers with private corporations. Political officials have told the media and the American public that these changes were needed to improve the government's efficiency, effectiveness, and economy. It has been suggested that these initiatives will reduce costs. However, an examination of downsizing and contracting out shows the opposite effect. While overall the Federal government has fewer employees now than in 1961, the statistics indicate that lower level employees have been cut the most:

• The number of secretaries decreased by 39% between 1992 and 1998.

• The blue collar workforce is down 40% since 1982, e.g., Supply Clerical and Technician (?35%), Accounting Technician (?24%), and Electronics Mechanic (?41%).

• Between 1993 and 1998 the number of GS‐1 to GS‐10 employees fell from 767,000 to 594,000.

• In 1983 the number of GS‐1 to GS‐10 workers exceeded GS‐11 to GS‐15 by nearly 300,000, while in 1997 GS‐11 to GS‐15 outnumbered the lower level workers by 44,000.

Although authoritative cost comparison studies are difficult to conduct because top officials have made little provision to collect information on the cost of contracting with private firms or the number of contract employees, available information indicates that it is much more expensive than using government employees. The contracting out we are talking about is not the usual kind—building ships or planes, or acquiring computer systems or special expertise not available in the government. Rather, it is contracting with private firms to do jobs that are currently being performed by Federal employees. Not satisfied with the level at which firms are being substituted for Federal employees, actions by political officials have created an environment which now favors private corporations and where they can be given work at top management's discretion, often regardless of cost. In fact, today most contracting out is done without the use of Circular A‐76 Cost Comparison Studies. There is empirical and logical evidence that shows that replacing government employees with private corporations is more expensive. For example, a study by the Department of the Army documents what people close to contracting have always known—that it is far more expensive to contract with a private firm for work than to have Federal employees do it. Logically, the government incurs additional items of cost when replacing Federal employees with private corporations. First, there is the profit that goes to the firm. Second, there is the firm's overhead which pays for corporate offices, staffs, and CEOs. Third, there are the costs of the contracting and award process and of contract administration and management. Although the worker on a government contract may be paid a little less than a government worker, the cost of the worker is only a third to a half of what the government pays the firm. Thus, replacing government workers with private firms usually costs far more and it is not unusual for it to cost two to three times as much. This paper partly is based on the authors' long experience in the Federal government. It is not based on the organizations in which they are currently employed.     

Learning about terrorism: Analysis,simulations, and future directions

This paper surveys the various activities of the Study Group on International Terrorism at the University of Oklahoma. The Study Group has employed the following phases in analyzing a form of conflict that has increasingly seized the world's headlines and challenged the capacity of governments to meet a particularly insidious type of political violence. In PHASE I, Ascertaining the Scope of the Investigation, problems related to defining “terrorism” and evolving a focus for analysis are recounted. In PHASE II, The Collection of Data and Initial Analysis, the techniques employed by the Study Group in collecting and evaluating data dealing with incidents of terrorism are discussed. In addition, a number of the preliminary findings of the studies are presented. In PHASE III, Application and Evaluation, the methods by which the initial findings were employed to develop a wide variety of programs related to developing alternatives to meet the threat of terrorism are discussed. Particular emphasis is placed on problems related to reconciling the need for an effective tactical response when an incident occurs with the equally pressing requirement for effective hostage negotiation. Under the section entitled Simulations, the techniques employed in developing a series of highly realistic simulations involving: (1) the University of Oklahoma Security Department, (2) the Norman Police Department, (3) members of a U.S. Army Special Forces Unit, and (4) flight attendants aboard the mock‐up of a cabin at the training facility of a leading international airline are presented. In addition, certain patterns that emerge from the simulations are noted. In PHASE IV, Policy Implications, the patterns mat emerged from the simulations are related to broader policy questions that not only include the need for more effective training techniques for law enforcement personnel, but also stresses the need to provide exercises that would promote administrative cooperation among senior level officials from the different jurisdictions that would be involved if an incident were to occur. In PHASE V, Future Directions, new areas of analysis and training are presented as they particularly relate to the need to sensitize personnel from both the public and private sector who may be high‐risk targets for terrorists attacks.     

Foreign patent monopolies in developing countries: An empirical analysis

This paper presents data on the patenting practice of patent holders resident in industrialized countries in Africa. It is confined to such patents taken out by Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tanzania, and the states whose patent legislation is administered by the Office Africain et Malgache de la Propriété Indus‐trielle (OAMPI): Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Dahomey, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Malagasy Republic, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo, and Upper Volta. These countries account for nearly four‐fifths of the total patents in force andlor applied for in Africa (excluding Rhodesia and South Africa).¹

In particular, the paper tries to throw some light on the importance of developing countries for foreign patenting, the motivation of foreign patent‐holders to take out patents in these countries, the actual transfer of patented technology, and the reasons for the lack of such a transfer. The paper complements the extensive work on foreign technology and foreign patents in Latin America, especially by C. V. Vaitsos [1972] and the Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena [1971]. It also seeks to test the theoretical assumption that patents in developing countries support the transfer of technology.²     

SITUATING ADMINISTRATIVE RESPONSIBILITY: A COMPARISON OF MEDIEVAL CHRISTIAN AND MEDIEVAL ISLAMIC ADMINISTRATIVE THOUGHT

Contemporary studies of administrative thought allow only a limited range of viability for medieval and non‐Western thought on the subject of public administration. This tendency belies the wealth of thought embedded within this broad literature. This paper investigates the matter of administrative accountability and responsibility through the lens of a comparative theorist of historical administrative thought. In order to assess the explanatory potential of early and non‐Western administrative studies, two texts have been chosen, both previously unanalysed in conjunction (to the best of my knowledge) from the perspective of the administrative theorist – John of Salisbury’s Policraticus and Abu al‐Hassan Al‐Mawardi’s Al‐Akham al‐Sultaniyya w’al‐Wilayat al Diniyya (The Ordinances of Government). Through an analysis of ideas of delegation and responsibility within these texts, the paper seeks to develop a critique of the place of revealed religious authority in the solution to the questions ‘who are administrators responsible to?’ and ‘what are administrators responsible for?’     

Labour Market Impacts of School Expenditure and Class Size: Evidence from China

This study is a first attempt to estimate the impact of school resources on students’ subsequent labour market earnings in China. Combining unprecedented school data from the early 1950s to the 1990s with household survey data in the 2000s, this paper documents that expenditure-per-pupil, a proxy measure of school resources (or quality) has a significant impact on the level of subsequent earnings through its influence on education returns. The positive effect calls for policy intervention aimed at improving education, to be based on the perceived economic return to the quantity as well as the quality components of education.     

Urbanization,personal income,and physical quality of life: The case of Kenya

This paper addresses a variety of methodological, theoretical, and historical problems associated with previous research on urbanization and development in Kenya. The first part of the paper discusses several general theories of Third World urbanization and development. Next, these perspectives are examined within the context of recent historical circumstances in Kenya. The final part of the paper presents an entirely new quantitative study of urbanization and development in Kenya. It improves on earlier research by using (1) data fromall urban regions of the country, (2) a statistical model that testschange over time, and (3) several new variables. Overall, the analysis shows that both the causes and effects of urbanization are more complex than what was indicated in previous studies. The quantitative findings can be explained by reference to various theoretical and historical concerns discussed in the paper.     

The Cost of Discrimination in Latin America

Indigenous and linguistic minorities are in an inferior economic and social position. The ethnic concentration of inequality is increasingly being recognized in the literature. In this review, studies from six Latin American countries that estimate the costs to an individual of being an economic minority are reviewed. The studies decompose the overall earnings gap into two components. One is the portion attributable to differences in the endowments of income-generating characteristics (“explained” differences) and the other is attributable to differences in the returns that majority and minority workers receive for the same endowment of income-generating characteristics (“unexplained”). This latter component is often taken as reflecting the “upper bound” of wage discrimination. In two studies for Bolivia, one using a 1966 survey and the other a 1989 survey, decomposition of the differential between indigenous and nonindigenous earnings leads to the conclusion that most of the overall differential is due to productivity. In Guatemala, Mexico and Peru, only one-half of the earnings differential can be attributed to differences in productivity-enhancing characteristics. In Paraguay, decomposition of the overall earnings differential between monolingual Spanish speakers and Guaraní speakers shows that most of the differential is explained by human capital differences. In Brazil, however, there is a significant cost to “being non-white.” Harry Anthony Patrinos is a Senior Education Economist at the World Bank. He leads the Economics of Education Thematic Group and manages EdInvest (www.worldbank.org/edinvest), the Education Investment Information Facility. He is co-author ofDecentralization of Education: Demand-Side Financing (1997). His latest co-edited book isPolicy Analysis of Child Labor: A Comparative Study (St. Martin's Press, 1999).Indigenous People and Poverty in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis (edited with George Psacharopoulos), was one of the first studies of the socioeconomic situation of indigenous peoples in Latin America.