The role of urban‐to‐rural remittances in rural development

One of the effects of rural‐to‐urban migration is the return of money and resources by the migrants to their respective home areas. Recently, it has been argued by several authors that such remittances represent a significant means for removing supply constraints to improved productivity in agriculture. In this paper the authors examine critically the available evidence on the rural impact of remittances. Subjects covered in the paper include the extent of the urban‐to‐rural remittances, the determinants of such financial flows and the use made in the rural areas of the money received. The paper concludes there is little evidence that urban‐rural remittances have been a significant means to rural economic development.     

Conditions of non‐development: The case of Lesotho

A peculiar combination of social and economic factors entailed by the proximity of South Africa creates, for Lesotho, a syndrome of non‐development that may usefully be visualised as a vicious circle in three parts—Poverty, Migration, Ideology—and is so described here. It is the purpose of this paper to demonstrate that the economic facts of village life in Lesotho (and in countries with certain characteristics in common with Lesotho) are perpetuated by their effect on the individual villager. The analysis enters a caveat to the theory of ‘aspiration effect’ [Firth and Yamey, 1963], extends the concept of frustration gap’ [McLoughlin, 1970] and adds a dimension to the cognitive map of migrant ideology [Philpott 1968].     

The politics of government‐business relations in Myanmar 1

All post‐colonial Myanmar governments and the business community benefited from their clientelistic networks. Without the help of government officials, many business firms would have gone under quickly; at the same time, without the assistance of business people, it would have been hard for most post‐colonial Myanmar governments to keep themselves in power. It is very clear that government‐business relations cannot simply be reduced to a zero‐sum game. This article clearly shows that if we assemble cases of government‐society relations in Myanmar in the way we solve a jigsaw puzzle, the picture that emerges is not simply a zero‐sum situation. Rather, certain interactions between incumbent governments and the business community in post‐colonial Myanmar were mutually empowering.     

The effects of transportation costs in low‐income agricultural economies

This paper examines the static consequences of transport costs in low‐income agricultural economies, and argues that many phenomena common to such economies may be largely due to the costs of transportation. It is argued below that the coexistence of ‘modern’, intensive capital‐using farms and others using primitive, extensive farming methods and very little capital can be a response to transport costs. It also seems possible that a sizeable fraction of the frequently observed urban‐rural wage gap may be a transport‐related index number phenomenon rather than a true gap in real wages.     

The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis

Abstract

The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving average model. The fit of this model was tested both by statistical diagnostics and the accuracy of predictions based on this model compared to actual occurrence. However, the series of victimization rates did not reveal any predictability aside from the overall trend of an increasing level of victimization. The findings of the study are discussed by two approaches: the contagiousness of terrorism and the concept of media‐oriented terrorism. These two concepts, separately or combined, may explain some of the patterns revealed in the occurrence of terrorist events. However, they both highlight the part played by the mass media, either as a target for publicity‐seeking terrorists or as an influential factor in the process of contagion.     

Joined up policy in practice? The coherence and impacts of the local government modernisation agenda

Abstract

The last decade has witnessed a raft of new policies designed to transform the politics and performance of local authorities in the UK. Over the next three years, a specially commissioned themed section of Local Government Studies will explore the impact of these policies drawing on recent empirical studies by leading researchers in the field. This paper, the first in the series, sets the scene by tracing the evolution of key policies, analysing their objectives and assessing the extent to which they can, as central government has claimed, be seen as a coherent package of complementary policies. It concludes that whilst at first sight the links between policies within the Local Government Modernisation Agenda are not obvious, policies have become increasingly holistic. Local authority officers perceive them to be interacting in ways that contribute to the achievement of service improvement, more effective community leadership, increased stakeholder engagement, greater accountability and increased public confidence. However, the lack of ‘joined up’ working across Whitehall presents significant problems for councils and other agencies that are responsible for local service delivery and a continuing challenge for central government.     

The impact of the Owen falls hydro‐electric project on the economy of Uganda 1

Inflation induced by an increase in the money supply may be conducive to economic growth, because it can be positively related to the savings ratio. This relationship is, however, limited by a certain rate of money supply which is associated with the maximum overall savings ratio. Treating money as a consumers’ good based upon Levhari‐Patinkin [1968], this study estimates a quadratic‐form savings function using international cross‐section data. It shows that the optimal rates of money supply are 11–12 per cent and 6–8 per cent in underdeveloped and developed countries respectively.